Fortune now front-runner to buy Absolut
LONDON -- Jim Beam bourbon maker Fortune Brands now leads the $6 billion-plus race to buy Sweden's Absolut vodka as the world's biggest alcoholic drinks group, Diageo, pulled out of the auction Wednesday.
Lincolnshire-based Fortune's distribution deal for Absolut was the sticking point for Johnnie Walker whisky maker Diageo, which pulled out of the process because it sees little chance of success with Fortune and Absolut so closely linked.
The world's four biggest spirits makers, Diageo, France's Pernod Ricard, privately-owned Bacardi and Fortune, were all interested in Absolut, but Diageo has bought a stake in a Dutch vodka firm rather than continue in a one-sided auction.
"The Absolut process has become tortuous and the belief is that the Swedes favor the incumbent distributor, which is Fortune," said one source close to the talks.
Fortune may be the smallest of the big four spirits groups but its 10-year distribution deal in the key U.S. vodka market for Absolut, which runs to 2012, has put it in the driving seat and make bids from its rivals more difficult.
"It's like buying a house and then being told you cannot move in for four years," said the source.
Diageo's frustration bubbled over as it paid $900 million for a half share of fast-growing premium Dutch vodka Ketel One and said it was no longer interested in the Absolut auction, although owning Absolut and its own Smirnoff brand was always going to be difficult to get past antitrust authorities.
The Swedish government put Absolut's owner Vin & Sprit up for sale in December as part of a state sell-off, and Pernod, Bacardi, Fortune and Sweden's Investor in partnership with private equity firm EQT are all bidding.
Absolut is the jewel in V&S's crown selling 10.7 million 12-bottle cases in 2007 putting it as the world's No. 4 best-selling international spirit brand behind Diageo's Smirnoff, Bacardi rum and Diageo's Johnnie Walker scotch.
With half of Absolut's volume in the U.S., Fortune's 10-year distribution deal there lasting until 2012 and shared rights elsewhere in the world are proving key to a vodka brand which grew its global volumes by 9 percent last year.
"Fortune is in the driving seat due to its control of U.S. distribution, but it is unlikely to pay top dollar," said another source close to the situation.
Fortune, which also makes Sauza tequila and Courvoisier cognac, also makes kitchen cabinets and widows, but this business has suffered in the U.S. housing downturn. Last month it reported a fall in fourth-quarter profits and some doubt Fortune's ability to come up with a knock-out bid for Absolut.
Outside the U.S., Absolut is distributed by Maxxium, jointly owned by Fortune, V&S, Remy Cointreau and private scotch whisky producer Edrington, and exiting Maxxium could cost around $250 million for an outside bidder, analysts say.
Among other bidders, Pernod is keen on a top vodka and Absolut would fit the bill but it is keeping its options open by talking to the Russian authorities about buying the rights to Stolichnaya outside Russia where it already distributes.
Pernod is unlikely to be allowed to own both vodka brands as Stolichnaya sells 2.1 million cases in the U.S. from an annual total of 3.1 million cases outside Russia, and might struggle to pay for both, with Stolichnaya valued at around $3 billion.
As talks with the Russian authorities drag on, Pernod may look to focus on Absolut, but if it ended up winning the Swedish vodka it would lose Stolichnaya immediately due to contractual reasons, and would then face having no distribution control over a top vodka brand in the key U.S. market during 2008-2102.
Absolut sales
Swedish Absolut is available in 126 markets and sales volumes rose 9 percent in 2007 to 10.7 million cases. Its top ten markets in 2007 were:
1. U.S. - 5.0 million cases
2. Canada - 377,000 cases
3. Spain - 343,000 cases
4. UK - 324,000 cases
5. Germany - 319,000 cases
6. Mexico - 313,000 cases
7. Greece - 265,000 cases
8. Poland - 262,000 cases
9. Israel - 218,000 cases
10. Sweden - 162,000 cases
Source: Reuters