What's up in Big Ten?
Big Ten men's basketball is your classic Monet: clear from a distance but hazier the closer you get.
As league play tips off tonight with three games, several details are known.
A pack of teams (Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin) has distanced itself from the rest, while others (Ohio State, Purdue) still could catch up.
Traditional power Illinois is reeling after a loss to Tennessee State, and new coaches John Beilein (Michigan) and Todd Lickliter (Iowa) are finding out how difficult their new jobs are.
But new faces on the court and on the sidelines distinguish this league, and the picture could dramatically change when the expanded conference schedule (18 games) wraps up March 9.
"You have to wait and see how it plays out," Northwestern coach Bill Carmody said Monday. "Ohio State's all new, Purdue's all new, Illinois is playing freshmen and junior-college guys. It's different.
"You don't really have a feel for the guys until you get into conference play."
In an attempt to decipher the new-look league, here are several key questions for the Big Ten hoops season.
Q. Can anyone challenge Michigan State (12-1) and Indiana (11-1), two teams off to their best starts since 1999?
A. Michael Flowers answered this Saturday when the Wisconsin guard calmly drained a 3-pointer with 2.7 seconds left to give his team a 67-66 win at ninth-ranked Texas. The Badgers looked overmatched against Duke's speed on Nov. 27, but their size (plus-10.2 rebounding margin) and defense (league-best 54.1 ppg allowed) will help them in league play.
Uber-athletic teams like Michigan State could cause the Badgers problems, but they should be there at the end. Ohio State also could join the league's upper crust. Freshman center Kosta Koufos ranks sixth in the league in scoring (15.6 ppg), and senior point guard Jamar Butler leads the league in assists (5.67 apg).
Q. Will a freshman, Indiana's Eric Gordon, be named Big Ten Player of the Year?
A. If Gordon maintains his pace, he's a good bet. The Hoosiers guard leads the league in scoring (23.4 ppg) and ranks second in free-throw percentage (86.5), ninth in steals (1.64 spg) and seventh in minutes played (32.2 mpg). Gordon is on pace to break the league's freshman scoring mark of 21.9 points per game set by Ohio State's Michael Redd in 1997-98.
Other POY candidates include Michigan State guard Drew Neitzel (14.5 ppg, 4.62 apg), Indiana forward D.J. White (16.4 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 2.1 bpg) and Ohio State's Butler.
Q. How legitimate is Minnesota's 10-2 start under first-year coach Tubby Smith?
A. Not very. No doubt Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie would love to have his predecessor's record, but Minnesota is a mirage right now. The Gophers' losses came against the only two good teams they have played so far (Florida State and UNLV), and they rank 200th in strength of schedule by RealTimeRPI.com. Still, confidence from winning can't be quantified, and Smith has his team playing sound defense. Minnesota leads the league in steals (11.45 spg) and ranks third in points allowed (57.5 ppg).
Q. Which of the league's new coaches will have the most success?
A. Smith. Minnesota ranks in the top half of the league in most relevant statistical categories. The Gophers have experience and two solid contributors in Dan Coleman (15.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Lawrence McKenzie (10.9 ppg, 3.27 apg).
Beilein is struggling to mold Michigan (4-8) into a fundamentally sound team after years of underachievement in Ann Arbor. Lickliter doesn't have much talent to work with, but Iowa surprisingly ranks 10th in the league in assists (12.5 apg).
Q. Can Illinois turn things around in league play?
A. Things don't look good. The Illini are a mess on offense, shooting just 43.3 percent from the field and a league-worst 28.8 percent from 3-point range.
"We ran four different zone offenses and I don't think any of them were very effective," coach Bruce Weber said after the Tennessee State loss.
The Illini continue to guard hard, but they sorely need synergy between their veterans (Shaun Pruitt, Brian Randle, Chester Frazier) and their new players (Demetri McCamey, Rodney Alexander, Mike Tisdale).
Q. How much will Kevin Coble's return today help Northwestern?
A. Coble will take time to mentally readjust to games, but his presence is invaluable, especially in the post. Northwestern is finally making 3-pointers (league-high 39.9 percent) and playing active defense, but its rebounding has been atrocious, even for the team's low standards. If Coble hits the boards like he did last year, NU could be a second-tier surprise.
Q. Will Purdue pick a personality?
A. The youthful Boilermakers are the classic wait-and-see team. They played Clemson tight and beat Louisville, but losses to Wofford and Iowa State are glaring. Keep an eye on talented freshman tandem Scott Martin and Robbie Hummel in Big Ten play.
Q. How will the Big Ten shake out?
A. Here's my predicted order of finish: Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan.