Iowa looms as first test
DES MOINES, Iowa -- The Republican presidential race has gone from merely unpredictable to chaotic.
As the first votes are cast Thursday, contests are tight in many states. Most GOP candidates have seen their fortunes shift in the homestretch. No one has a clear path to the nomination.
Mike Huckabee recently emerged as a serious contender after rallying restive conservatives in must-win Iowa and elsewhere. The ex-governor of Arkansas, however, lacks the money and manpower of his better-known opponents.
Mitt Romney's wealth bought him enough visibility to maintain comfortable leads in Iowa and New Hampshire for months. But the former Massachusetts governor's early-state strategy now is threatened; he is fighting battles in both states.
Rudy Giuliani long dominated national polls only to watch his standing suddenly drop. The former New York mayor faces several likely early defeats and can only hope his unorthodox approach works -- winning delegate-rich states that vote later.
John McCain, the Arizona senator whose campaign all but imploded over the summer, is looking for a New Hampshire win to propel him in states beyond. Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and TV actor whose campaign performance didn't live up to months of hype, wants to place in the top three in Iowa to prove he is credible.
Ron Paul, a Texas congressman with a libertarian streak and anti-war tilt, can't be discounted. He's raised an astounding $18 million in less than three months and could be a spoiler.
Many Iowa and New Hampshire voters wait until the final days to pick a candidate, and late-deciders could break for anyone.
Other unknowns further muddle the race: It's unclear whether voters will punish Romney for negative advertising. Immigration has proven the most divisive issue all year, and religion has emerged as a fault line in recent weeks. Unexpected outside events, such as the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, could shift the dynamics.
Here's how the race stands:
IOWA: Thursday (40 delegates)
It's a dogfight in the Midwestern state that votes first. Huckabee and Romney are going at each other for the top spot in what is essentially a two-way contest.
Romney methodically built a high-powered organization, courted voters with face-to-face politicking and introduced himself through $5 million in TV ads this year. He had a comfortable lead in Iowa for months.
Then an underdog named Huckabee, a one-time Southern Baptist preacher with right-flank credentials on social issues, struck a chord with voters who craved a rock-solid conservative. He recently soared past Romney in polls, and the race quickly took on religious overtones as Huckabee emphasized his Christianity and attracted influential evangelicals who view Romney's Mormon faith skeptically.
Romney shifted strategies and sought to ease concerns about his Mormonism by giving a high-profile speech on religion. He also started assailing Huckabee as weak on immigration and crime at campaign events and in the race's first negative TV ads. Romney's latest commercial takes Huckabee to task on foreign policy and government spending as well.
The effort may be paying off. Polls show Huckabee's double-digit lead narrowing to single digits.
Any erosion of support also could be attributed to Huckabee making several unforced errors, most notably on foreign policy matters. Or he simply may have peaked too soon.
By far, Romney has the strongest organization and the most money in a state where both are essential. But Huckabee has grass-roots networks of pastors, home schoolers and gun owners working on his behalf. Each candidate is trying to lower expectations for himself while raising them for his rival.
Thompson has planted himself in Iowa in hopes the state can keep alive his lackluster bid. Neither Giuliani nor McCain has made the state a priority; they hope for better-than-expected showings. The trio is in a battle for the third slot, and any of them could seize it. They are mindful of the long-standing notion that there are only three tickets out of Iowa.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jan. 8 (24 pledged delegates; Republican Party penalties will cut the number to 12)
Next-up New Hampshire is a toss-up -- between Romney and McCain.
The stakes are high for both. Romney, the former governor of a neighboring state who has a lakeside vacation home here, needs a win either to bounce back from an Iowa loss or, if he triumphs in the leadoff caucuses, to solidify his standing as the front-runner. He has had an edge for months after putting $6 million into ads and spending a year engaging in shoe-leather politics.
A loss for McCain would end his candidacy; he's pinned the fate of his second bid on the state he won in 2000, largely out of necessity after his campaign found itself broke and laying off staff over the summer. He has seen signs of a resurgence in recent weeks.
Both men will benefit from substantial get-out-the-vote operations, but McCain trails Romney dramatically in money.
Threatened despite a slight advantage in polls, Romney went on the air with ads in the final days that take McCain to task on taxes and immigration. McCain claims the criticism proves his rival's bid is in trouble. He responded with his own commercial that quotes newspaper editorials praising him and eviscerating Romney, including one that suggests his rival is a "phony."
Huckabee has gained ground here since early this year but he still dramatically lags his rivals. His New Hampshire organization is thin, but he could be a force here if he leaves Iowa a winner.
Giuliani, a Northeasterner, tried to play here, but his $3 million TV ad campaign failed to boost his standing. As McCain surged, Giuliani dipped. He since has re-focused on his original strategy of winning delegate-rich states that vote later, beginning with Florida.
Paul could have an impact in the "Live Free or Die" state.
Independents who can vote in either primary and helped McCain in 2000 are the X-factor; there's no guarantee they will vote in the Republican matchup over the star-studded Democratic race.
MICHIGAN: Jan. 15 (57 pledged delegates; penalties will cut the number to 30)
Giuliani's once-strong support has plummeted. That's left a tight contest between Huckabee, whose success elsewhere has reverberated here, and Romney, who grew up in the state where his father was a governor. McCain won the state in 2000 and has some support here.
None of the candidates has given Michigan the attention it sought when it moved its primary to an early date.
The results from Iowa and New Hampshire could upend the race.
NEVADA: Jan. 19 (34 delegates)
This Western state is a wild card. Republicans have hardly campaigned in a state that's geographically inconvenient. Nevada also holds caucuses that demand a stellar organization and boatloads of money. Most candidates don't have both. Polling shows Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani competitive.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Jan. 19 (47 pledged delegates; party penalties will cut the number to 24)
Huckabee has an edge in this first-in-the-South primary battleground with the support of fellow white Christian evangelicals. But his lead is narrow. Romney and McCain are competing hard.
Although he lags both in organization and money, Huckabee could benefit from religious leaders rallying their followers.
Romney has maintained his popularity despite Bible Belt uneasiness about his religion. McCain, who lost a nasty primary here in 2000, wants South Carolina to be the second stop on his comeback tour.
Giuliani's rocky personal life and left-leaning positions on abortion and gay rights may be catching up with him in this conservative hotbed. South Carolina would seem a natural fit for Thompson the Tennessean, but money woes have limited his efforts here.
FLORIDA: Jan. 29 (114 pledged delegates; Republican Party penalties will cut the number to 57)
Once Giuliani country, Florida now is up for grabs.
Huckabee is quickly gaining on the former New York mayor in a state that's home to many retired New Yorkers.
Huckabee's rapid ascent in polls has prompted Giuliani to start running TV ads here with a commercial that invokes the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Romney has a seemingly endless supply of money and the backing of several allies of the popular former governor, Jeb Bush.
One unknown -- whether the current governor, Charlie Crist, will endorse before the state votes.
MEGA TUESDAY: Feb. 5 (at least 995 delegates)
No one knows how the creation of what essentially is a national primary day will affect the outcome of the race.
Romney, McCain, Thompson and Huckabee believe the rapid-fire primary calendar will make earlier contests more important.
Giuliani argues that he can emerge the nominee after winning states like California, New York and Illinois that are clustered on Feb. 5 and offer huge numbers of delegates.
His strategy requires big money to compete in extraordinarily expensive media markets in multiple states -- and he doesn't have the seemingly limitless amounts of cash that Romney does.