Lets' explore some fantasies in the AFC

Continuing on our theme from last week, let's take a trip around the AFC …

AFC North

• Few players have surprised me more than Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (27 total TDs). The team has taken the reins off and let him air it out more to a talented receiving corps. He should be a top-six QB in 2008.

• Even more shocking than Roethlisberger's emergence is that of Cleveland QB Derek Anderson (27 total TDs). As long as the Browns are smart and lock him up, this guy is a slam-dunk starter for years to come.

• Is there a more overrated player than Bengals WR Chad Johnson? I think not. Over the team's past 28 games, Johnson has had 11 productive fantasy games. Think about that next year before taking him as your top wideout.

• Flying under the radar quite nicely is Ravens RB Willis McGahee (1,270 yards from scrimmage, 8 TDs). Don't be shocked if he ends up in your league's fantasy title game.

AFC East

• Remember Detroit WR Mike Furrey's campaign in 2006? He had 98 catches, 1,086 yards and 6 TDs. Well, the Patriots' Wes Welker is doing his best Furrey imitation in '07 with 84 catches for 896 yards and 7 TDs. One big difference, though, is that Welker figures to keep that production going for a while.

• Bills rookie RB Marshawn Lynch has proven he's the real deal. He should be a solid No. 1 fantasy back for some time.

• Sad fact: Excluding kickers and tight ends, no Jets player ranks in the top 20 at their respective position in fantasy points. Chad Pennington (22nd among QBs) is the highest, followed by WR Laveranues Coles (25th) and RB Thomas Jones (26th).

• Even more hilarious is the state of the Dolphins. Take out Ronnie Brown (still 10th among RBs despite being out since Week 8) and nobody ranks in the top 30. QB Cleo Lemon is 31st (and he's not even playing anymore), RB Jesse Chatman is 49th, and WR Marty Booker is 76th.

AFC South

• The Colts appear to be saving Marvin Harrison for the NFL playoffs -- not the fantasy playoffs. Too bad because his owners have taken it on the chin.

• Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew has failed miserably to follow up on his impressive rookie season. Who knew Fragile Fred Taylor could stay healthy -- and play so well? MJD should be a top-tier back, though, once Taylor's out of the picture.

• Keep an eye on where Titans RB Chris Brown ends up next season. As an unrestricted free agent, if he lands with the right team and can stay healthy, Brown (13 total TDs in 2004-05) may surprise.

• In just five games, Texans WR Andre Johnson has 535 receiving yards and 5 TD catches. Despite a shoulder injury that may shelve QB Matt Schaub for the season, backup Sage Rosenfels should be able to get Johnson the ball enough to make your foes quake … assuming you are still alive, of course.

AFC West

• A bold prediction: Denver's Brandon Marshall (65-914-4) will finish in the top 10 in fantasy points among wide receivers in 2008. He's also a great play down the stretch as a low-end No. 2 or high-end No. 3 wideout.

• The Chiefs' Larry Johnson shouldn't be one of the top eight running backs taken next year. That's an amazing drop-off, but on a team with a struggling offense, it's really no shocker.

• It looks like the Raiders have found their running back. That is, as long as they can sign Justin Fargas, who is an unrestricted free agent heading into the off-season. Fargas has adapted well to the zone-blocking scheme the Raiders have implemented. He has some tough matchups as the fantasy playoffs approach, but with 285 rushing yards the past two games, he'd be tough to bench.

• If Chargers RB Michael Turner goes to a team with a good offensive line, look out. He could post top-10, even top-five fantasy numbers next year.

My teams: A great finish to the season as my regular-league team (9-4) squeaked out a 95-89 victory, earning a division title and a first-round bye in the playoffs. In my unit league, I won 87-49 to finish 10-3 with a division title and a first-round bye.

Good bets

• Cowboys RB Marion Barber vs. Detroit. It's tough to figure when to start Barber, but this is a good matchup where he could pile up yards late in a potential blowout.

• Packers RB Ryan Grant vs. Oakland. Grant is a top-five back this week.

• Jaguars RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Carolina. The Panthers' run defense isn't awful, but they have allowed rushing TDs in seven of the last nine games.

• Seahawks WR Bobby Engram vs. Arizona. Tell me again -- why did the Bears get rid of Engram? He's on pace for a 96-catch campaign and makes a solid No. 3 this week.

• Chiefs RB Kolby Smith vs. Denver. Smith (83 yards) came back to earth last week, but should go over 100 yards against the Broncos.

• Rams QB Marc Bulger vs. Cincinnati. As long as he stays healthy -- and you can live with the injury risk -- Bulger makes a sweet play vs. the league's 26th-ranked pass defense.

• Falcons RB Jerious Norwood vs. New Orleans. This is a sleeper pick, but one that could pay off big against an awful Saints defense.

• Browns WR Joe Jurevicius vs. the New York Jets. If you are struggling at WR, Jurevicius makes a nice start. He has no TDs since Week 4, but his yardage totals are 44-55-82-44-69-76 the past six games. Not terrible. This week, he's good for 70 yards and maybe a score.

Bad bets

• Lions QB Jon Kitna vs. Dallas. Kitna has just 3 TD passes and has thrown 5 INTs the last three games, while the Cowboys have allowed just 10 TD passes the last 10 weeks (and 5 of those came vs. the Patriots).

• Texans RB Ron Dayne vs. Tampa Bay. Running on the Bucs has been difficult of late as Jon Gruden's team hasn't allowed a rushing TD in three straight weeks.

• Titans RB LenDale White vs. San Diego. White's banged up and facing a solid defense.

• Patriots RB Laurence Maroney and WR Donte' Stallworth vs. Pittsburgh. It's tough to recommend sitting anyone on New England, but these two haven't done much lately.

• Packers WR Greg Jennings vs. Oakland. Purely a gut feeling here. With Brett Favre a bit banged up, I think Jennings could -- could! -- have a so-so game.

• Colts RB Joseph Addai vs. Baltimore. Addai in the bad bets? Blasphemy? Perhaps, but only two teams have gone over 100 rushing yards on the Ravens this season, and Baltimore has allowed a scant 5 rushing TDs.

Tough luck

Think you had a bad loss last week? Try to top these:

• My opponent had Joey Galloway last week, who caught a 60-yard bomb and was dragged down at the 1-yard line. If he gets in, it's worth 10 more points in our league (bonus for long TDs). My opponent lost 95-89, giving me the division title and a first-round bye.

• To qualify for the playoffs, my brother needed Patriots TE Ben Watson to catch a touchdown on Monday night. On the Pats' first drive, Tom Brady hit Watson right in the gut, but he couldn't hang on. Then on the last drive, Brady tried to hit Watson again, but two Ravens defenders interfered with Watson and the ball sailed over his head.

• A Daily Herald employee needed a win to clinch a playoff spot and had the Baltimore defense going Monday night. He was down by 1 point on the final drive of the game. One interception, one sack, and he wins. On the pass before the Hail Mary that Mark Clayton caught, a Pats defender dropped a sure pick. "Hands down my most dramatic loss in seven years of fantasy football," he said.

• And here's my favorite: A former Herald employee was waffling between Broncos RB Travis Henry and Giants RB Derrick Ward as the 3 p.m. games approached. Well, about 2:50 p.m., his baby girl starts crying and needs to have her diaper changed. Needless to say, it took him a while, and by the time he got back to the computer, it was 3:06 p.m. "No big deal," he thought. "The Bears game doesn't start until 3:15." Except the Broncos game started at 3:05. Henry stays in the lineup, gets outscored by Ward 31-14 and he loses by 1 point. Cost him a division title and a first-round bye.

Tell me your story

Any other bad beats out there? E-mail your story from last week, or the upcoming one to jdietz@dailyherald.com