Can you tell a bad blackjack player from a good one?
Once a blackjack player learns some proper basic strategy, he tends to assume he's an expert at the game. If another player at the table makes a play that doesn't fit into his own repertoire, he'll likely assume that player is a sucker.
In reality, even most experienced veterans haven't bothered to learn all of their proper hand-playing strategy. Worse yet, they're unaware that the science of playing some hands can extend beyond "basic" strategy. Oftentimes, the guy who blames another for making a "bad" play is actually the weaker player of the two.
To prove my point, I'm going to give you two lists containing five plays each. One list is all bad plays. The other contains plays that are correct either some, or all of the time -- but are never that bad.
Player No. 1
Hits 12 against a 4
Doubles A/8 against a 6
Hits 12 against a 3
Splits 9/9 against an 8
Stands on 8/4/4 against 10
Player No. 2
Stands on A/7 against a 9
Doubles A/3 against a 3
Insures 20 against an Ace
Stands on A/7 against 3
Stands on 8/4/4 against 7
Now let me ask you -- which player is the real sucker? The answer? It's player No. 2. So -- are you one of those people who always thinks the other guy is the idiot? Here's what makes No. 2's plays so bad.
A/7 vs. 9: 18 against a dealer's 9 is an underdog hand, regardless of whether it's 10/8, A/7 or 9/9. Standing with any of them will win 8 times out of 20. But if it's an A/7 and you hit it, you'll win 9 out of 20.
A/3 vs. 3: Conventional table play here is wrong. When you double with A/3, eight hit cards out of 13 will give you a "stiff." With such a low hand completion percentage, you need the dealer to be showing a 5 or 6 up to make doubling correct.
20 vs. Ace: The worst time to bet the dealer has a 10 in the hole is when you're holding two of them yourself. Want to see that a little clearer? Suppose all seven players held 20 against the dealer's Ace up. Think about it.
A/7 vs. 3: This hand is a favorite to win -- even when you take one blind hit to it. If you can't raise the stakes when you're holding the longer end of the stick, what are you gambling for?
8/4/4 vs. 7: With a 7 up, the dealer will break roughly 2 times out of 8. Yet, if you hit your 16, you'll improve it 3 times out of 8. Standing on any kind of 16 against a 7 is the sure mark of a sucker.
Now what about player No. 1's moves? He's the guy who'll get bashed by the others for hitting 12 against a 4. Yet it's such a close play that depending upon the other cards on board, hitting is actually correct in about 40 percent of the cases.
Know-it-alls seem to also go ballistic when somebody doubles on an A/8. Yet, if the dealer hits on soft 17, it's actually correct basic strategy to double A/8 against a 6!
As for hitting 12 against a 3 and splitting a pair of 9s against an 8, those are simply proper basic strategy plays the typical pseudo-expert doesn't know he's supposed to make.
Finally, you often need such a perfect hit card with 16 against a 10 that if your hand contains any 4s or 5s, you should now stand. Hitting 16 against a 10 in blackjack is analogous to drawing to an inside straight in poker. Whereas hitting 16 against a 7 is analogous to an open-end straight draw.