Intrastate showdown: Illini vs. Wildcats

The year was 1964.

With future Hall of Famers Dick Butkus and Jim Grabowski leading the charge for the defending Big Ten champions, third-ranked Illinois stomped into Dyche Stadium and earned a 17-6 win over Northwestern.

That Oct. 3 afternoon represents the last time the Illini (1-0) and the Wildcats (2-0) met when they both owned winning records.

Until today.

With a bowl berth on the line for Northwestern (6-5) and a Bowl Championship Series bid potentially on the table for Illinois (8-3), they'll be playing for much more than the usual Sweet Sioux Tomahawk fare at Memorial Stadium.

Sounds like the perfect way to start the second 100-game set between these intrastate Big Ten rivals, no?

"As a senior, I couldn't ask for anything better, to go out on national television, playing a great football team like Illinois," Northwestern senior linebacker Adam Kadela said. "We're playing for something, trying to go out winners."

Illinois owns a 51-44-5 edge all-time, but the Wildcats have won the last four games by an average of 13 points.

"It's a team that we haven't beaten since I've been here," said fifth-year Illinois guard Martin O'Donnell, "so we've got plenty of motivation."

Here's a multi-dimensional look at what will take place at 11 a.m. in front of a near-sellout crowd and a national ESPN audience:

Historic turnarounds

If Illinois wins today, it supplants the 1995 Northwestern Wildcats as the third-greatest one-year regular-season turnaround in the Big Ten's 112-year history.

1. 1943 Purdue (+8; 1-8 to 9-0). World War II's V-12 military training program brought in other schools' greats (such as Illinois' Alex Agase) to lead the Boilers to glory.

2. 1967 Indiana (+7.5; 1-8-1 to 9-1). Hoosiers' only Rose Bowl trip (led by future NU coach John Pont) secured with upset of No. 3 Purdue in final game.

3. 1995 Northwestern (+6.5; 3-7-1 to 10-1). Current NU coach Pat Fitzgerald won national awards as a star linebacker for a merciless defense.

3. 2007 Illinois (+6.5; 2-10 to 8-3). Rashard Mendenhall, who considered NU seriously in recruiting, sets rushing records while veteran defense holds opponents at bay. Ron Zook, the favorite to win Big Ten Coach of the Year, quiets his critics.

Taking the fourth

Northwestern's schizophrenic season has been encapsulated by its fourth-quarter play. A 58-7 loss to Ohio State was the only game in which NU had no chance to win in the final quarter. The Wildcats have blown fourth-quarter leads three times and lost (Michigan, Purdue, Iowa); rallied from fourth-quarter deficits three times and won (Nevada, Minnesota, Indiana); and had four chances to beat Duke from the 7-yard line in the final minute of a stinging defeat Sept. 15.

Bowl prospects

• With a win today, Illinois preserves an outside chance to reach a BCS bowl, most likely the Sugar or the Fiesta. The Illini need to have Ohio State beat Michigan, have unbeaten Hawaii falter and have several BCS conference races shake out the right way. A likelier destination for the Illini is the Capital One Bowl (Jan. 1 in Orlando, Fla.) -- the best non-BCS bowl for Big Ten teams.

• Northwestern is bowl eligible but must beat Illinois to secure a berth. The Insight Bowl (Dec. 31 in Tempe, Ariz.) will be very interested if the Wildcats win. NU could also head to the Motor City Bowl (Dec. 26 in Detroit) or to several bowls unaffiliated with the Big Ten (Texas Bowl, Armed Forces Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl).

Key matchup: Tyrell Sutton vs. J Leman

Judging by his stats, NU junior Tyrell Sutton loves to run against Illinois. He owns 322 yards and 1 TD in his first two meetings with the Illini. Leman, meanwhile, posted a career-high 22 tackles while tracking down Sutton and others in last year's 27-16 NU victory. The Illini senior linebacker is tied for third in the Big Ten in tackles (114). "I know Sutton's been hurt, but he seems to be back full strength and they're running the ball a lot better now," Leman said. "That guy's all heart."

Chain gang

Despite boasting the Big Ten's top offense (432.1 ypg), the Wildcats haven't made things easy on themselves this season. NU is second nationally in third-down attempts (180) behind Iowa State (192), but it ranks 16th in conversion percentage (47.2). The Wildcats have converted more than half their third-down attempts in four of the last six games. They went 13-for-19 in an overtime win at Michigan State, converting nine times on third-and-6 or longer. NU converted 12 of 17 third-down chances last week against Indiana. "A lot of it's been our attitude," center Trevor Rees said. "When we're in the huddle, it doesn't matter if it's third-and-1, third-and-inches or third-and-20. All of us really believe that someone's going to make a big play."

By the numbers

2,873: Illinois has set the school mark for single-season rushing yards.

277: Yards that NU quarterback C.J. Bacher needs to break Brett Basanez's single-season passing record.

44: Until last week's upset of top-ranked Ohio State, this was the number of games since Illinois was plus-3 in turnover margin.

8: The number of current Illinois players who started the 2004 Illinois-NU game as freshmen -- which was the last game of the Ron Turner era. (LG Martin O'Donnell, DT Chris Norwell, DE Xavier Fulton*, MLB J Leman, OLB Russ Weil, FS Justin Harrison, K Jason Reda, LS Kyle Knezetic).

*Has one more year of eligibility.

1: The number of current NU players who started the 2004 Illinois-NU game (C Trevor Rees).

4: Consecutive times NU has beaten Illinois. The Wildcats have never won five straight against the Illini.