That final BCS bowl berth just might go to Fighting Illini

It's true.

Illinois, a program that won eight games in the previous four seasons combined, has a legitimate opportunity to earn a Bowl Championship Series bowl berth.

Illinois, a team that stood 31st in the BCS standings at this time last week, can bring in one of those $14 million-plus payouts that go to BCS teams.

That's how much Saturday's win over top-ranked Ohio State boosted the Illini's chances.

CollegeBCS.com's Jerry Palm, in fact, projects Illinois to face Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 2.

But before we assess these odds -- much less debate whether Oklahoma wants to return to the Fiesta Bowl after last year's fiasco against Boise State -- let's review what it takes to get a spot in one of the five BCS bowls:

1. Must have 9 wins.

2. Must be in the top 14 of final BCS standings, which are calculated after the conference championship games on Dec. 1.

3. Each of the six "major" conferences receives one automatic spot, but no conference can have more than two BCS teams.

How can Illinois, which currently ranks No. 19 in the BCS standings, make these rules work to its advantage?

• Step 1: Beat Northwestern on Saturday. That fulfills the 9-win requirement.

• Step 2: Hope for Ohio State to beat Michigan. That would make the Bucks and the Illini the only Big Ten teams with 9 wins.

• Step 3: Hope that No. 16 Hawaii loses one of its final three games (at Nevada, home with Boise State and Washington).

The Warriors probably don't deserve a BCS berth, seeing as how they just had their first win over a top-80 BCS team last week when they edged Fresno State, but both polls have Hawaii in the top 12.

Only a Hawaii loss can show the pollsters the error of their ways.

• Step 4: Wait for some of the 18 teams ahead of them to lose, which will happen since several play each other.

"If they beat Northwestern, the Illini can sit on their couches eating cheeseburgers, or turkey I suppose," Palm said, "and then watch other teams lose for a couple weeks."

For Illinois' purposes, it's most important for the ACC teams to knock each other off.

The ACC has four teams ahead of the Illini -- No. 10 Virginia Tech, No. 14 Virginia, No. 15 Clemson, No. 17 Boston College -- but the Illini need all but the ACC title-game champ to fall out of the top 14.

If all this happens, then the BCS powerbrokers have little choice but to give Illinois a spot.

Why? That good ol' two-spots-per-conference rule.

If neither Hawaii nor Boise State is in the mix, then the six major conferences fight for the four open spots.

The SEC, Pac-10 and Big 12 each have three great teams, so they'll have no problem claiming three of the four spots.

That leaves the Big East, ACC and Big Ten to battle over the last one.

The Big East doesn't have a second team ranked highly enough to get into the top 14. The ACC shouldn't if its teams beat up on each other.

So whom would that leave? Illinois.

But the dominoes can't start falling if the Illini don't snap their four-year losing streak to Northwestern.

"We take the same approach every week," senior linebacker J Leman said. "That's what we're focused on."

Bowl Championship Series snapshot

CollegeBCS.com's Jerry Palm, the Northwest Indiana resident who spends more time studying the BCS than anyone else on the planet, predicts this is how the BCS bowl berths will be distributed (listed with current BCS rank):

BCS title game: No. 1 LSU vs. No. 2 Oregon

Orange Bowl: No. 10 Virginia Tech vs. No. 6 West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 19 Illinois

Rose Bowl: No. 11 Southern California vs. No. 7 Ohio State

Sugar Bowl: No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 13 Texas