Does NU have a shot?
The laminate sign hangs outside the Northwestern men's basketball office, its two-word plea still unanswered.
When asked how Northwestern can ever overcome obvious mismatches in size, talent and rebounding ability, coach Bill Carmody has provided the same answer throughout the last seven seasons.
Hint: It's the writing on the wall.
"Make shots."
But year after year, Northwestern hasn't.
The team's inability to consistently convert from the perimeter is the biggest reason why it hasn't reached a postseason tournament under Carmody.
NU has had seemingly capable shooters -- Winston Blake, Evan Seacat, T.J. Parker, Vedran Vukusic -- and runs an offense that facilitates open 3-pointers, but the baskets haven't come.
"I don't know the answer," Carmody said. "We have guys that are capable of doing it. I don't even think it's the competition."
Only once during Carmody's tenure has Northwestern made more than one-third of its 3-point attempts (33.6 percent in 2001-02). The Wildcats have been the Big Ten's worst 3-point shooting team in each of the last two seasons.
In Carmody's final season at Princeton, the Tigers hit 37.2 percent of their 3-pointers and had four players shoot better than 38 percent from beyond the arc.
"Maybe we got better shooters there," Carmody admitted. "We played a lot of big-time schools and guys made 'em."
The make-shots message isn't lost on Carmody's current players as they prepare to open the 2007-08 season Nov. 15 against Stanford.
"We should be the best 3-point percentage shooters in the Big Ten, but we haven't been," junior guard Craig Moore said. "We know that it's going to take a little extra work."
Moore has the shooting skills to change NU's fortunes, but he must bounce back from a disappointing 2006-07 season. A Big Ten all-freshman team selection in 2005, Moore scored in double figures in only four of 17 league games.
The 6-foot-3 shooting guard endured a tortuous seven-game stretch in February, going scoreless four times and hitting just 4 of 28 attempts from 3-point range.
"I lost a little confidence," he said. "It's the first bad year in my life, and I'll do anything in my power to make sure that never happens again."
Carmody needs turnarounds from several other returning players, especially since sophomore forward Kevin Coble will be out for the immediate future. Coble, the first freshman in school history to lead the team in both scoring (13.4 ppg) and rebounding (5.2 rpg), took an indefinite leave last month to be with his ailing mother in Arizona.
Coble remains enrolled in school, but his return to the court is unsettled.
"Even with Kevin, scoring was something you had to figure out," Carmody said. "The rebounding is what I'm scared about most."
A young front line hopes to offset the loss of Coble. Croatian natives Ivan Peljusic and Nikola Baran, both of whom redshirted last season, could alternate at center against varying defenses (Peljusic against zone, Baran against man-to-man).
Peljusic is expected to start the opener alongside true freshman Mike Capocci, an athletic forward from Glenbard East, and promising sophomore Jeff Ryan, a Glenbrook South product.
Ryan showed flashes last season, scoring 18 points against third-ranked Wisconsin in a game that Coble missed with an injury. But he scored in double figures in only one other conference game.
"He's fast; he gets open a lot," Carmody said of Ryan. "But is he open because he's fast, or is he open because guys that miss shots are always open?
"If he can make shots, that guy is really going to be a very good player."
Carmody repeated himself one more time for effect.
"If he can make shots."
The task of getting players open shots falls upon true freshman Michael "Juice" Thompson, who has looked impressive in preseason practice. Thompson could be the purest point guard NU has had under Carmody, who calls the freshman a "steadying influence."
The 5-10 Chicagoan has quickly grasped the Princeton offense and will start the season opener.
"It's still a work in progress, but I'm starting to see a lot more passes that I can throw in," Thompson said. "Once the shots begin to fall, there'll be a lot more backdoor cuts, drives to the basket and post-up opportunities. We just have to work on our shots more."
In addition to Moore, Carmody needs greater production from veteran guards Sterling Williams and Jason Okrzesik.
Williams has 36 career starts but saw his minutes decline during Big Ten play last year. Okrzesik, a senior who has missed part of preseason practice with an ankle sprain, shot just 26.7 percent from 3-point range last season despite showing glimpses of perimeter potential.
"They have to have better years than they had last year," Carmody said. "None of them played that well. They know it. They're all very capable."
NU will miss crafty swingman Tim Doyle, who set a single-season school record with 157 assists in 2006-07. Doyle's defensive skills in the 1-3-1 zone were invaluable, but Carmody is confident his current players can generate steals.
The coach's biggest issue -- big surprise -- is shot making. But in spite of the track record and the low ceiling most have set for NU this season, Carmody sees hope for a renaissance.
"I don't know why we haven't shot better," he said. "But I think there'll be a breakthrough, and I think it'll be this year."
Northwestern at a glance
Coach: Bill Carmody (95-113, eighth year at Northwestern; 187-138, 12th year overall)
2006-07 record: 13-18 (2-14 Big Ten, tie for 10th)
Starters returning/lost: 3/2
Projected starters
• G/F Jeff Ryan 6-6 190 So. Athletic swingman has star potential but must finish better around the basket.
• F Mike Capocci 6-6 190 Fr. Athletic freshman from Glenbard East should help NU's rebounding woes.
• C Ivan Peljusic 6-8 195 Fr. Croat has made good progress after redshirting last year.
• G Michael Thompson 5-10 165 Fr. "Juice" has all-around skills to run the team at the start of his college career.
• G Sterling Williams * 6-3 190 Jr. Needs to translate wealth of experience into consistent production.
Reserves
• G Craig Moore * 6-3 180 Jr. Must regain shooting stroke after sophomore slump.
• F Kevin Coble * 6-8 190 So. Team's best player on indefinite leave to be with ailing mother in Arizona.
• G Jason Okrzesik 6-1 170 Sr. Sharpshooter takes on greater scoring load after 3-point struggles (26.7 percent) last year.
• C Nikola Baran 6-8 235 Fr. Coming off redshirt season, decent shooter can be effective against man defense.
• G Jeremy Nash 6-4 185 So. Has missed all of preseason practice with nagging back problems.
• F Jean-Marc Melchior 6-6 205 Jr. Athleticism is there, meaningful production is not (6 points in 48 career minutes).
• F Marlon Day 6-5 220 Jr. Walk-on has the sturdy frame to see some court time.
• F Patrick Houlihan 6-5 190 Jr. Walk-on appeared in eight games last season, earned academic all-Big Ten honors.
• G/F Matt Steger 6-5 195 So. Walk-on swingman played in eight games last season.
* Returning starter
Wildcat's 2007-08 schedule
Wednesday CHICAGO (Exhibition) 7 p.m. (nusports.com)
Nov. 15 STANFORD 8 p.m. (Big Ten Network)
Nov. 17 at DePaul 1 p.m.
Nov. 20 BENEDICTINE (Ill.) 7 p.m. (bigtennetwork.com)
Nov. 24 BROWN 11 a.m. (BTN)
Nov. 27 at Virginia 6 p.m. (ESPNU)
Dec. 1 SAVANNAH STATE 11 a.m. (bigtennetwork.com)
Dec. 3 ARKANSAS STATE 7 p.m. (bigtennetwork.com)
Dec. 8 at Western Michigan 1 p.m.
Dec. 20 HOWARD 7 p.m. (BTN)
Jan. 2 PENN STATE* 8 p.m. (ESPN2)
Jan. 6 at Ohio State* 11 a.m. (BTN)
Jan. 9 at Minnesota* 8 p.m. (BTN)
Jan. 12 MICHIGAN* 5:30 p.m. (BTN)
Jan. 16 at Chicago State 7 p.m.
Jan. 19 at Wisconsin* 8 p.m. (BTN)
Jan. 24 MICHIGAN STATE* 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2)
Jan. 27 at Illinois* 7 p.m. (BTN)
Jan. 30 TEXAS-PAN AMERICAN 7 p.m. (bigtennetwork.com)
Feb. 3 at Indiana* 11 a.m. (BTN)
Feb. 6 MINNESOTA* 6 p.m. (BTN)
Feb. 9 at Michigan State* 6 p.m. (BTN)
Feb. 13 OHIO STATE* 8 p.m. (BTN)
Feb. 16 PURDUE* 3 p.m. (BTN)
Feb. 19 at Iowa* 8 p.m. (BTN)
Feb. 23 INDIANA* 7 p.m. (BTN)
Feb. 26 at Michigan* 8 p.m. (BTN)
March 1 at Purdue* 1 p.m. (BTN)
March 4 or 5 IOWA* TBA (ESPN/ESPN2/BTN)
March 8 or 9 WISCONSIN* TBA (BTN)
March 13-16 Big Ten tournament (at Indianapolis) TBA
*Big Ten Conference games
Home games in CAPS