Races put spotlight on Illinois
House races, not just Obama, put spotlight on Illinois
A presidential race with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in the pack of Democrats isn't the only election putting the spotlight on this blue state.
Three GOP House veterans, including former Speaker Dennis Hastert, are retiring, leaving key congressional districts up for grabs next year. And among incumbents in the state's 19 congressional districts, two who won close elections last year are targeted again this time.
As a result, Illinois will be watched closely in the upcoming election, experts said.
"It has fast become one of the national battlegrounds for the U.S. House in 2008," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Ryan Rudominer.
The retirements of Hastert and Reps. Jerry Weller and Ray LaHood erased any incumbent advantage in those districts, and observers say Democrats have a shot at picking up at least one. Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Mark and Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean likely face tough races.
Here is a closer look at how the elections are shaping up:
• After two decades in the House, Hastert's retirement in a Republican-leaning district -- stretching from his Plano home south of Chicago westward almost to the Mississippi River -- has Republicans and Democrats lining up to take his job.
But the GOP is counting on the district, where Hastert was considered by many to be unbeatable, being red enough to keep a successor in place. The district backed President Bush with 55 percent of the vote in 2004.
In the past, Democrats did not offer well-known opponents, and the carpenter who lost to Hastert last year got a little traction mostly because of the fallout surrounding Hastert's handling of the congressional page scandal.
This time, Democrats vying for the spot include last year's opponent, a businessman and an attorney. A well-known Democrat, state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, decided against running, and will seek another term in the Illinois House.
Republicans say that's a good sign.
"When you see Democrats deciding against running in open seat races, it's probably safe to say that they don't see that much of an opportunity," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain.
Republicans interested in Hastert's job include millionaire businessman Jim Oberweis, who ran unsuccessfully for governor and the U.S. Senate, a state senator and a mayor.
• Although Hastert is the biggest GOP name in Illinois to announce his retirement, it's the race for Weller's seat in a district south of Chicago that could be one of the state's most competitive.
Weller is giving up his seat after seven terms in a district that was behind President George Bush in 2004, although Weller's margins of victory have shrunk in the last few elections.
It's the Democrats' best chance to pick up a seat because it's not a "locked up, absolutely safe," Republican district, said DePaul University political science professor Michael Mezey.
Democrats statewide have done well in the district, and in 2000 the combined votes for Democrat Al Gore and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader edged out Bush.
Weller is leaving office amid questions about land deals in Nicaragua and whether he should report the finances of his wife, a politician in Guatemala, to Congress. He's also been tagged as one of the 22 most corrupt members of Congress by a citizen watchdog group. Weller maintains his decision to retire was made months ago and unrelated to the recent criticism.
A number of Republicans are considering a run for the seat; it already has attracted a high-profile Democrat, state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, who met with national political and congressional leaders before announcing her run.
"We're expecting to run a tough race," said the NRCC's Spain.
Mezey said open congressional seats traditionally are more competitive than those with an incumbent -- and where the national parties are likely to spend money.
• Rep. Ray LaHood's retirement opens up a central Illinois seat that has been held only by LaHood and his former boss, longtime House Minority Leader Bob Michel, for the last half-century.
Republicans have counted on the district, and it was solidly in President Bush's camp in 2004 with 58 percent of the vote, according to The Almanac of American Politics.
Possible Republican contenders include state Rep. Aaron Schock of Peoria, 26, who became one of the youngest members to serve in the Illinois Legislature after he defeated a four-term incumbent in 2004.
But conservative newspaper columnist Robert Novak says the candidacy of well-known former NBA and Bradley University coach Dick Versace endangers the GOP's hold on LaHood's seat.
• Four-term GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is getting attention again after he won a surprisingly close election last year in a district in Chicago's northern suburbs that's trending Democratic.
Former Bush adviser Karl Rove has said the GOP must protect the seat. Democrat Dan Seals, who got last-minute help from House Democrats in his quest last year, is running again, as is Jay Footlik, a former Clinton White House aide.
DePaul's Mezey predicts that Kirk could face a tougher general election next year than he did in 2006 when he beat Seals with 53 percent of the vote. But national Republicans say Kirk survived when Democrats had their big year in 2006, and expect him to do so again.
Democrats voting for president next year also may not want to throw Republican lawmakers like Kirk overboard, especially if their nominee is New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, said Illinois GOP chairman Andy McKenna, who called Clinton a polarizing figure.
"They may feel it's better to balance things by going for a Republican member of Congress," he said, pointing out that Kirk won in 2004 when the district went for Democrat John Kerry.
• Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean is a seemingly perpetual target of Republicans since she snatched away the GOP-leaning district from them in 2004.
Bean, from suburban Chicago, upset 35-year GOP House veteran Phil Crane, then beat two challengers last year with 51 percent of the vote.
• Democrats are still recruiting a candidate to run against freshman GOP Rep. Peter Roskam, said the DCCC's Rudominer. Roskam beat the Democrats' heavily backed candidate last year, Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth, to replace GOP Rep. Henry Hyde when he retired after more than three decades representing his suburban Chicago district.
Duckworth, who now runs the Illinois Department of Veterans' Affairs, has said she won't run against Roskam in 2008.
Despite the early jockeying, it's still months before the first votes are cast in the Feb. 5 primary and more than a year before the general election. Candidates will begin filing with the state Board of Elections later this month.
And it'll play out in a state where Republicans hold no statewide offices and Democrats control the state Capitol in Springfield.
In many ways though, Illinois can be a "barometer" for how Democrats and Republicans might fare nationally, said University of Illinois at Springfield political science professor Kent Redfield.
"If the Democrats pick up a couple of seats in Illinois, then national Republicans are in huge trouble," he said.
{A look at some upcoming congressional races in Illinois}
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Three key Illinois congressional seats are up for grabs next year because GOP House veterans are retiring. Some say the Democrats who control Congress have at least one shot at picking up a seat among the state's 19 districts. Candidate filing with the state Board of Elections starts later this month.
Open seats:
• 11th District: GOP Rep. Jerry Weller's seat is the one observers say Democrats could land. Weller is retiring amid questions about foreign land deals and whether he should report to Congress the finances of his wife, a politician in Guatemala.
• 14th District: Many considered former House Speaker Rep. Dennis Hastert unbeatable. But his planned retirement opens up a seat in a Republican-leaning district the GOP is betting will be red enough to keep.
• 18th District: A former NBA coach and one of the youngest members to serve in the Illinois legislature are among the candidates vying to replace retiring GOP Rep. Ray LaHood of Peoria.
Incumbents to watch:
• 10th District: Former Bush adviser Karl Rove has said GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's seat is one Republicans need to protect. Kirk won a close election last year, and Democrats who want his job include his former challenger and a Clinton White House aide.
• 8th District: Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean has held on to the GOP-leaning district she grabbed in 2004, but Republicans want it back.