Expect a tight series … and here's why

PHOENIX -- The Cubs have tons of playoff experience.

The Arizona Diamondbacks do not.

Maybe it will matter, maybe it won't.

"Experience plays a big role, but at the same time this is baseball and anything can happen at anytime," Cubs outfielder Cliff Floyd said. "(The Diamondbacks) are a good young team. A lot of guys probably don't even understand what's going on, but they're smart enough to know anything can happen.

"They aren't overlooking anything we can do. It's a good matchup."

"They're in the playoffs for a reason," said Cubs left-hander Ted Lilly, who starts Game 2 on Thursday. "Obviously they have a very good club and so do we. It's going to come down to who gets it done."

It might be a series determined by which team can manufacture runs against good pitching staffs.

"You have to manufacture runs in the playoffs because you're going to face very good pitching," said Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez. "You're not going to see many No. 4 or No. 5 starters."

If that's the case, someone like Ryan Theriot might become just as important in the series as Cubs sluggers Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Derrek Lee.

Cubs manager Lou Piniella said he would bat Theriot in his customary No. 2 hole after hitting him eighth more often than not in the last few weeks. Theriot is one of the few Cubs without any playoff experience.

"The game doesn't change any," Theriot said. "It's what you focused on all season, playing good sound baseball and winning games."

The Diamondbacks won the season series 4-2, but the games were close. Two Arizona wins were by 1 run and a third by 2. This series could be just as tight.

Here's why.

Starting pitching

In Carlos Zambrano, Lilly and Rich Hill, the Cubs have three starters with ERAs of 3.95 or lower -- and Zambrano and Lilly combined for 33 wins.

Cubs fourth starter Jason Marquis might not get the ball in Game 4, if there is one, after several rocky outings down the stretch. However, using Zambrano recently on three days' rest didn't work.

Brandon Webb was 18-10 for Arizona with a 3.01 ERA, second best in the National League, and he opposes Zambrano in Game 1 on Wednesday.

After that, Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin will use Doug Davis (13-12) in Game 2 and Livan Hernandez (11-11) in Game 3. Melvin would face a decision similar to Piniella's for Game 4 with regard to bringing back Webb on three days' rest or starting Micah Owings.

In Hernandez, the D'backs have someone who has started eight postseason games and is 6-2.

Bullpen

Jose Valverde led the NL with 47 saves, and Arizona setup men Brandon Lyon, Doug Slaten and Tony Pena and largely responsible for the D'backs going 32-20 in 1-run games.

Cubs closer Ryan Dempster struggled in seven of his last nine outings, allowing at least 1 run, and he has no playoff experience.

But neither does Valverde.

Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood have developed into one of the best setup groups in all of baseball.

Offense

Soriano, Lee and Ramirez killed the ball in September. The Cubs hit 45 home runs in the month, led by Soriano's club-record 14.

Floyd is going to bat fourth in Game 1, according to Piniella, and could become a Cubs key. Piniella might have no choice but to start rookie Geovany Soto at catcher because of a more powerful bat than Jason Kendall.

Only two teams in the NL scored fewer runs than Arizona -- the Nationals and the Giants. It's an offense that depends heavily on No. 3 hitter Eric Byrnes, who had 21 homers and 83 RBI and was third in the league with 50 stolen bases.

Former White Sox prospect Chris Young, whom general manager Kenny Williams traded to Arizona in December 2005 with Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino in exchange for Javier Vazquez, led the D'backs with 32 homers, although he struck out 141 times.

Defense

Piniella said he believes the Cubs are underrated defensively.

Jacque Jones will start in center field even against left-handers because Piniella wants his glove on the field. Soriano had 19 outfield assists to tie for the league lead. If the Cubs have a weak spot in the outfield, it's in right field, where Floyd and Matt Murton will platoon.

Because the D'backs have some athletic players on the bases, that might give Piniella another reason to play Soto over Kendall, who couldn't throw anybody out stealing after arriving from Oakland.

Arizona was 10th in the NL in fielding, four spots below the Cubs.

Bench

Tony Clark and Miguel Montero were weapons coming off the Arizona bench as pinch hitters during the regular season, hitting 3 home runs apiece.

Daryle Ward's sprained thumb is a Cubs concern because they could be without their best left-handed pinch hitter.

Floyd and Murton will be there to pinch hit on days they don't start.

Managers

Piniella is making his sixth appearance in the postseason as a manager, and he led the Cincinnati Reds to a World Series title in 1990.

Melvin has no playoff experience as a manager, but he was Bob Brenly's bench coach in 2001 when the Diamondbacks won the World Series.