Cubs have as good a shot as any in NL, but Big Z the key

So now what?

That's the question arriving at such a rapid pace that it requires a rapid response.

In order to properly answer with context and perspective -- or at least to think out loud -- we'll first take you back to May 31, when I -- despite all evidence to the contrary -- told you that the Cubs would win the Comedy Central.

True, at the time the Cubs were 7 under .500 (22-29), 6½ games out of first, only 3 games out of last, having lost four straight and eight of 10, and for good measure had just been thumped 9-0 by the Marlins.

You have to ask yourself, was it: A) Idiocy at its best? B) Skating out on a soft ledge? C) The stuff of genius? D) Pure insanity?

Around here, D is generally the safe answer, but in this case, it's none of the above.

There was just no other team capable of winning the division, and so, despite the woeful appearance and performance of the Cubs at the time, there was good reason to store the sharp instruments and let it play out.

(I ask no apologies from the hundreds who wondered if the cheese had slid off my cracker, though the strange references to my deceased mother's heritage were, well, let's just say, disconcerting.)

And after all that, the Cubs find themselves in a very familiar spot.

Though it's true that three or four American League teams -- maybe more -- clearly possess more talent than the Cubs, anything can happen in a short series, even a World Series.

As for getting that far, there's no reason to think the Cubs can't reach the Fall Classic.

You look around at the National League contenders, and while not as weak as the Norris Division, not a single NL team, including the Cubs, should strike fear in anyone's heart.

It's wide open and right there for the Cubs to capture -- or get swept in the first round if their horse isn't on his game.

They've done the heavy lifting, which was the 162-game season and reaching the postseason, and now it's a coin flip, when no team owns the rotation, bullpen, offense and defense that would have it considered the favorite.

That's why the Cubs, Phillies and Diamondbacks are all listed at 3-1 to win the NL.

As for the World Series, the Cubs and the Phillies both are 5-1 behind only the Yanks (2-1) and the Red Sox (3-1), and ahead of the Tribe (6-1), Angels (8-1) and D'backs (11-1).

"This is the exact reason I signed here, because I saw the chance for this and now we can do it,'' said Ted Lilly, who pitched in four postseason games for Oakland in 2002-03 and allowed 1 unearned run in 7 innings of his only start.

"I wanted to be part of the biggest thing that could happen in baseball, which is the Cubs winning the World Series.''

So what must the Cubs do to reach the World Series for the first time since 1945?

There's little question that the big load must be carried by Carlos Zambrano, who must act like an ace instead of an … er, uh … donkey.

If Zambrano does his job, does what he just got paid to do, the Cubs should go to the World Series.

Zambrano is capable of getting hot, staying hot and pitching well at least twice in the first series, and perhaps three times in each of the two after that. If he doesn't do his job, everyone else's gets a whole lot tougher, maybe impossible.

But can Zambrano handle that pressure? Can he temper his emotions? Will he break a bat over his head, or someone else's? Will he act like an adult?

Will he be Good Rex or Bad … sorry … will he be Good Z or Bad Z?

These are questions only he can answer, and if he finds the right ones this could be a spectacular October in Chicago.

Thing is, it's not 1984 -- or '89, '98 or '03, for that matter -- and though these Cubs aren't as good as their past playoff teams, they're also not competing with teams like the '84 Padres, '89 Giants, '98 Braves or '03 Marlins.

Maybe it'll be just like the Bears of 2006, with the Cubs cruising to the World Series before running into a buzz saw.

Then again, Lou Piniella's 1990 Reds were supposed to get swept by Oakland and instead won four straight games and stole the World Series before the Athletics knew what hit them.

You just never know.

The game has never seen more parity, never been more chaotic.

Baseball remains an odd game with strange and brutally -- often painfully -- unpredictable occurrences.

You don't need to be a Cubs fan to understand that.

Though it sure helps.