2-point Cook County sales tax hike scare?

A month or so ago, Democratic Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley of Chicago called another commissioner's proposal to raise the county sales tax by 2 percentage points "dead on arrival."

Now, he's not so sure.

In a surprise move, Cook County Board President Todd Stroger has scheduled an emergency board meeting for next Monday, Oct. 1 -- the same day legally required hearings on the tax increase are scheduled.

Procedurally, that means that if nine commissioners vote for the tax, the board could have hearings on the tax and enact it all in the same day.

If it passes, the measure would give Chicago the highest sales tax rate in the country at 11 percent, and business leaders say it would spell disaster for the Cook County economy, because businesses would flee and consumers would shop in surrounding counties.

While passage of the tax had been regarded as unlikely, some commissioners are now asking why Stroger would call for such a meeting if passing it weren't a likelihood.

Maybe to scare people with a doomsday tax so that when it does come time to actually pass a realistic tax it looks attractive by comparison?

"We thought about that as well," said Tim Schneider, a Republican Commissioner from Bartlett.

"I think it's clear that in addition to hiding the ball, they're also playing the oldest political game in the book," said Forrest Claypool, another Democratic Commissioner opposed to any tax increase.

By beating back a Draconian 2-point tax increase, Stroger, or one of his loyal commissioners, might be able to ride in on a white horse and "rein in" the tax increase to a "mere" 0.25 percentage point increase or 0.5 point increase -- appearing fiscally responsible while still giving the county some much-needed revenue, some commissioners speculate.

Stroger, for his part, has kept publicly mum on the various tax increase proposals out there, saying only that some additional revenue is necessary, that he won't raise the property tax, and the board has to decide what form of tax it can accept.

Adding fuel to the speculation that Monday's meeting is either a tax scare or an attempt to enact a lesser sales tax is the estimate of what revenue a 2 percentage point increase might yield.

Evanston Democrat Larry Suffredin puts it at $750 million a year -- far more than last year's budget deficit of roughly $500 million and much more than the county has ever claimed to need for next year.

Also throwing doubt on the likelihood that the increase will pass Monday is the need for Finance Chairman John Daley to vote for it.

Three Democrats -- Suffredin, Claypool and Quigley -- have announced their opposition to tax hike, and the five Republicans on the board are expected to follow suit. That means that every other board member would have to vote for it.

Daley would have to put his brother, Mayor Richard M. Daley, in the position of leading the city with the highest sales tax in the nation.

John Daley Monday said, "I'm willing to look at it," but didn't commit his support.

Neither did Commissioner Roberto Maldonado, a Chicago Democrat who -- while not positively saying no -- said he considers a sales taxes too regressive and would rather see a local income tax, which would require state approval.

"Nothing's going to happen at that meeting," predicted Republican Commissioner Gregg Goslin of Glenview confidently. "I don't think they have the votes for it."

Still, others are taking nothing for granted.

"It's of deep concern to me," Schneider said.