Emmys at the crossroads
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The Emmy Awards never quite manage to get it all the way right.
They can honor Julia Louis-Dreyfus for the low-rated rookie series "The New Adventures of Old Christine," but only after celebrating Candice Bergen year after year for "Murphy Brown."
They can honor James Gandolfini and Edie Falco as outstanding actor and actress in a drama, but not in the same year "The Sopranos" wins for outstanding dramatic series -- and vice versa.
Last year, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences produced a miserable slate of nominees snubbing previous winners Gandolfini, Falco, Felicity Huffman of "Desperate Housewives" and what was then the defending top drama, "Lost." Yet, just when everyone was ready to write off the Emmys, they saved face at the actual award ceremony by honoring Louis-Dreyfus and naming "The Office" top comedy.
This year, the ATAS has somehow produced a top-rate slate of nominees. Sure, I could carp about the utter absence of "The Wire" and "The Shield," as well as Kristen Bell of "Veronica Mars" and the continued ghettofication of top comedies "South Park" and "The Simpsons" in the animation category. But the 59th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards, airing at 7 p.m. Sunday on WFLD Channel 32 from the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, will feature several interesting races, many pitting excellent cable series against popular broadcast favorites.
The question is, will the academy complete the deal by making mostly correct choices, or mess it up again by picking, say, overrated Emmy favorite David E. Kelley's "Boston Legal" and James Spader over the brilliant swan song of David Chase's "Sopranos" and Gandolfini?
Look at it this way: The ATAS has already chosen "American Idol" shill Ryan Seacrest as this year's host (a product of Fox drawing the broadcast assignment), so things are off going in.
Yet here's a look at the top races, in drama and comedy, and how the academy can get the rest of the night right -- or go horribly wrong.
Drama
Say what you will about its open-ended conclusion, "The Sopranos" stands head and shoulders above the four broadcast series it's up against. Yet that's where the Emmys always seem most determined to choose a dark horse. Look out for "Boston Legal" and NBC's "Heroes." Please, anybody but "Grey's Anatomy," which stooped to every cheesy trick in the book last season. "The Sopranos" should and will win.
Best actor
Kiefer Sutherland won last year, but doesn't belong now after a miserable season on "24." Neither does Denis Leary. That leaves two-time winner Spader and the more deserving Hugh Laurie of "House" against three-time winner Gandolfini, who should and will win.
Best actress
Falco has an even tougher time of it, with Kyra Sedgwick of "The Closer" and previous winners Patricia Arquette of "Medium" and Mariska Hargitay of "Law & Order: SVU" the top competition. Thank the academy just for nominating Minnie Driver for "The Riches," but warn it not to make the sentimental choice of Sally Field for "Brothers & Sisters." Falco should win, but Sedgwick will.
Best supporting actor
This is the snafu category. Please, anybody but William Shatner of "Boston Legal." A couple of fine "Lost" actors go up against T.R. Knight of "Grey's Anatomy" and Michael Imperioli, a token "Sopranos" nominee. Tony Sirico would have been a better choice, and along with Forest Whitaker of "The Shield" they would have mopped the floor with these guys. As it is, Terry O'Quinn should win, but voters won't be able to resist the image of Masi Oka of "Heroes" raising an Emmy overhead.
Best supporting actress
Rachel Griffiths is the best actress up for this award, but her role just isn't very good in "Brothers & Sisters." That leaves a couple from "Grey's Anatomy" and a couple from "The Sopranos." Aida Turturro should win, but Sandra Oh will.
Comedy
"The Office" defends the title against a couple of deserving rookies, the withering TV lampoon "30 Rock" and the stylish fashion farce "Ugly Betty." That in itself is a step forward for the academy, which has always been slow to recognize fresh quality. Please not "Entourage," an overrated exercise in testosterone, and ditto for "Two and a Half Men." That means "30 Rock" should win, but when it splits the NBC vote with "The Office," "Betty" will slip by up the middle.
Best actor
Alec Baldwin should win for his cocksure network exec in "30 Rock," but Emmy politics dictate he's out because of the politically incorrect voice message he left his daughter. That leaves Steve Carell of "The Office" and Emmy fave Tony Shalhoub of "Monk." Please, anybody but Charlie Sheen. (If Jerry Seinfeld couldn't win an Emmy for playing himself, why should he?) The ATAS will revert to form with Shalhoub.
Best actress
What was once a dead category featuring generally appealing women married to oafish TV husbands is suddenly hotly contested between quality comedians. Tina Fey should win, if only because she's also the guiding creative force behind "30 Rock." But Louis-Dreyfus is the defending champ, and America Ferrera holds "Betty" together. Ferrera will win as Emmy succumbs to sentimentality.
Best supporting actor
Neil Patrick Harris should have won last year for "How I Met Your Mother," but wasn't even nominated. So, after a less spectacular season, he's up against tougher competition in the form of Jeremy Piven and Kevin Dillon of "Entourage" and able veterans Jon Cryer and Rainn Wilson. Yet if anyone embodies the way "Entourage" has raised its game as a show-biz satire, it's Dillon. Harris should win, but I think Dillon will pull off a major surprise.
Best supporting actress
This six-person category really comes down to two top contenders: Jaime Pressly of "My Name Is Earl" and Jenna Fischer of "The Office." To discerning eyes, Pressly regressed last season, so Fischer should win, but I think the Emmy will go to Pressly -- unless it goes to Conchata Ferrell of "Men," who might serve as a Tyne Daly stand-in for the Emmy old guard.
In that case, the Emmys will confirm they still have a ways to go to establish themselves as a true and accurate arbiter of quality on TV.