Odds Ryan will do time?

The unusual order granting former Gov. George Ryan freedom while he seeks another appeal of his corruption conviction unleashed speculation that he may never be put behind bars, as endless appeals run on until he dies.

But that's unlikely unless he's granted a new trial altogether, given the speed of appeals courts and the life expectancy of a man Ryan's age.

Although speculating on when the 73-year-old Ryan might die may seem a bit macabre and crass, Ryan himself told Judge Rebecca Pallmeyer almost a year ago that a prison term of 6½ to 8 years would be "a death sentence." One of his lawyers, Brad Lerman, told Pallmeyer that even a sentence of 2½ years "could take away the last healthy years of his life."

Unmoved, Pallmeyer gave him 6½ years. With good behavior, Ryan's time could drop to 5½ years.

While few are predicting the outcome, both Ryan's attorney, James R. Thompson, and the former prosecutor in the case, Patrick Collins, seem to think a decision is likely well within a year from the U.S. Appellate Court for the 7th Circuit, even if it agrees to hear the case again.

The 7th Circuit will probably take about two months to rule on whether it will even reconsider Ryan's case, said DePaul University College of Law professor Len Cavise and Northwestern University School of Law professor Albert Alschuler. Both, however, noted that the court can take more time if it wishes.

As the court's order stands now, if the 7th Circuit hears the case, Ryan remains free while it reconsiders and there's no set time on how long that would take. If justices refuse to hear it, Ryan would have about two weeks to report to prison.

Yet his lawyers have vowed to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court if that happens.

That's where things get gloomy for Ryan, who was governor from 1999 to 2003. Typically, that court will not allow a defendant to remain free on bond while he asks for the chance to appeal.

"I can't think of any" instance where it's happened, said Alschuler of Northwestern University.

The Supreme Court averages about three months while it decides whether to hear the case, according the court's Web site.

Even if it hears the case, Ryan will likely already be in prison while that happens.

From there, the timeline is uncertain, but if it hears the case at the beginning of its term in October and issues a ruling at the end of its term in June or July, the Supreme Court would take another 10 months.

The timeline is uncertain, but one possible scenario would have the court ruling within one term: about a 10-month period.

For Ryan to remain free for more than a year without a new trial being ordered, essentially legal lightning would have to strike, experts say: A months-long 7th Circuit appeal followed by Supreme Court permission to remain on bond, followed by its taking up the case for another year or so.

Even if that is assumed, statistics say Ryan would outlive that time period.

A year ago, Ryan, then 72, called 6½ years a "death sentence," but a 2006 report by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is more optimistic. While average life expectancy for men is 75.7 for those born recently, chances improve significantly for those who make it to age 65, as Ryan did in 1999.

For those men, life expectancy is 81, giving Ryan eight more years from today. And if Ryan makes it to age 75, his expectancy increases to 85, giving him 12 more years from today.

According to those statistics, Ryan would not only live to see prison, but might even survive through the sentence.

Statistics, of course, promise tomorrow to no one. And Ryan's attorneys claimed at his sentencing that he suffers from Crohn's disease, diabetes, diverticulitis and high cholesterol -- although none of those conditions made him miss a day of his six-month trial due to illness.

The monkey wrench in the timeline, however, could be if the 7th Circuit or Supreme Court grants a new trial.

How long could it take for retrial? The possibility is so remote, several experts asked by the Daily Herald wouldn't even speculate.

But several factors come into play. The two main prosecutors on the case, Collins and Zack Fardon, have left the U.S. Attorney's Office. While two assisting prosecutors, Laurie Barsella and Joel Levin, remain, new team members would need to be added.

Thompson and others have been vague, but there is speculation that legal superstar Dan Webb, the lead attorney who defended Ryan, might not be available for a retrial either.

Webb is the chief rainmaker for his firm of Winston & Strawn, and it reportedly cost the firm at least $20 million in income while he defended Ryan essentially for free. That caused some friction among partners in the firm, and may not be allowed again.

Add to that the time for pre-trial motions, the time to screen and pick the jury, and the time for the trial itself -- six months last time -- and the process could take well more than a year or two.

But Cavise of DePaul thinks it will never come to that.

"You're talking about working a case up that would take forever. It's not going to happen. There's not going to be a retrial in this case," he said.

Exhaustion on both sides might lead to a plea deal, Cavise and other attorneys speculated. But Ryan, who is steadfast in maintaining his innocence, still might not go for it. And Thompson, who served as governor from 1977 to 1991, seems committed to helping Ryan no matter what, indicating he would personally try the appeal before the 7th Circuit if necessary.

One thing Thompson isn't saying is whether he would seek a pardon for Ryan from whoever the sitting president is at the time one needs to be sought.

But he did hint "anything that would aid the defendant would be considered."