Fantasy football receivers: Take T.O., we dare you

Try as I might, I can't find any fantasy football Web site that ranks Terrell Owens as its top wide receiver.

Carolina's Steve Smith and Cincinnati's Chad Johnson seem to be the popular No. 1 picks. Owens is as high as second and as low as seventh.

Seventh?

Please.

Only Marvin Harrison (50) has more touchdown receptions the past four years than T.O. (42). And don't forget that Owens played in just seven games two years ago due to the debacle in Philadelphia.

True, there is some inherent risk in the mercurial Owens. Two years ago, I had Owens ranked third and wrote, "Give me Torry Holt or Marvin Harrison and spare me the possibility of a nuclear meltdown in Philadelphia."

Well, the meltdown happened and Owens owners were burned.

This year, though, I'm feeling the T.O. love.

I've ranked him No. 1.

Am I nuts?

I'm not so sure.

Owens is a happy camper in Dallas, and he has a quarterback in Tony Romo who's more than happy to throw him the pigskin. After Romo took over in the middle of Week 7 last year, Owens caught 9 touchdown passes and scored in eight of the 11 games in which Romo played. He also had three 100-yard games and three more with 80-plus.

All of that evidence leads me to believe he will out-point Smith (with a struggling QB), Holt (career high is 12 TDs), Johnson (career high is 10 TDs) and Harrison (who will finish with 250 fewer receiving yards).

Nine lives

After Owens, I still really like the next eight receivers listed. It's no stretch to think Harrison will finish second in points -- and he's certainly the safest pick out there. Sure, he's 35, but this guy has eight straight seasons with double-digit touchdowns.

Some Web sites actually have Reggie Wayne above Harrison. Don't buy it. While Wayne is younger and more fleet of foot, Harrison just has that knack of getting open near the end zone -- and Peyton Manning trusts him implicitly.

After Denver's Javon Walker at No. 9, I get a little bit leery of what to expect out of the next dozen receivers on my list.

Will New Orleans' Marques Colston thrive without a veteran like Joe Horn around? Can New England keep Randy Moss happy and bring him back to Moss-like form? Is Hines Ward going to give us a 10-TD season or 5? When will the Texans find a capable quarterback to get Andre Johnson the ball? Is the Eagles' Reggie Brown the real deal?

And on and on.

So, get one -- and if you are lucky -- two of those top nine guys. Wondering which receivers to start every week is a major headache, and if you can remove some of the doubt by having a clear-cut No. 1, all the better.

The next tier

Once the top 20-22 receivers are gone, there's a group between 23-32 who I think will all produce as No. 3 wideouts without much risk.

The Bears' Bernard Berrian is among these, as is Detroit rookie Calvin Johnson, Seattle's Deion Branch and San Diego's Vincent Jackson (everybody's darling sleeper).

Berrian is better in leagues that award points for long TDs; Branch or the Jets' Jerricho Cotchery are good in point-per-reception leagues.

Be careful of Santana Moss in this group. The Redskins' speedster is battling hip and groin injuries and could be a major risk. Factor in that he has no reliable quarterback, and it's no stretch to forget about him altogether.

The old farts

Last year, I pointed out how receivers don't age the way running backs do. When receivers hit their early or mid-30s, it's still OK to grab the middle-of-the-pack ones because they are going to put up consistent numbers.

Last year, for instance, Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Marty Booker and Isaac Bruce all finished in the top 30 in fantasy points. Muhsin Muhammad (32nd), Eddie Kennison (34th) and Joe Horn (37th) weren't far behind.

When targeting one of these "boring" names midway through the draft, I might stay away from Booker, Kennison and Horn this season. All three have awful QBs throwing to them.

The other four should be fine. And don't forget about Amani Toomer (missed half of '06). He should finish with 3-6 TDs and maybe 1,000 yards. Also consider Tennessee's Eric Moulds or Baltimore's Derrick Mason as fourth or fifth guys who can be used if a top player goes down. Their numbers won't be spectacular, but they'll give you something.

Sleepers

My highest-ranked sleeper candidate this year is Seattle's D.J. Hackett. With Darrell Jackson in San Francisco, I think Hackett is poised for a breakout season. Most people rank teammate Deion Branch higher, but he's overrated thanks to one big performance in a Super Bowl.

Putting Hackett 20th is a little nuts (his average ranking on other boards is 38th and nobody has him higher than 29th). What this means is Hackett should be drafted as a third receiver. Don't reach for him when other No. 2s are going. If I'm right, Hackett will be a gold mine; if I'm wrong, no big deal because you didn't waste a sixth- or seventh-round pick.

Now, let's hit on a few other under-the-radar names:

Tennessee's Brandon Jones could emerge as the team's top receiver. He had 3 TDs the last four weeks of 2006. … Denver's Brandon Marshall is an immense talent. If he recovers from a hip injury, he'll be the Broncos' No. 2. … Somebody has to win the No. 2 spot in San Diego. Either Malcolm Floyd or Craig Davis is worth a bench spot. … I still really like the Eagles' Hank Baskett. He's 6-feet-4, 220 pounds, and he averaged 22.1 yards per catch on 22 receptions last year. As of now, though, he's the team's No. 3 behind Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis. … If you are in a league that awards points for return yardage, then the Bears' Devin Hester is obviously no sleeper. But in keeper leagues, if you have a deep bench and your expectations are too high, he may be worth a flier. … Believe it or not, Carolina's Keary Colbert (754 yards, 5 TDs in 2004) has looked great in camp. He won't get drafted, but keep an eye on him.

Tight ends

For leagues that split out tight ends from WRs, there's San Diego's Antonio Gates … and then everybody else.

The big question is where to draft Gates. Last year, I took him with the fourth pick of the third round and was pretty happy with the results. Having Gates is like having another No. 2 wide receiver. Plus, his owners never have to worry about that position the rest of the season.

So, while the third round may seem a bit early, if somebody drafts him in the third round, don't laugh. He can be a real difference-maker on Sundays.

After Gates, there are still some great tight ends out there. San Francisco's Vernon Davis is a good candidate to join the Big Two of Gates and Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez. I also like Dallas' Jason Witten because so does Tony Romo.

Jeremy Shockey has been consistent for a few years, but you aren't going to get mind-boggling numbers out of him.

When taking a backup, consider the Bears' Greg Olsen. The rookie is drawing rave reviews in camp, and although he'll split time with Desmond Clark, I bet Olsen gets in the end zone at least four times.

John Dietz ranks the wide receivers

Player, team Projected yards TDs CommentCream of the crop

1. Terrell Owens, Cowboys 1,200-1,450 11-16 TDs last five w/o '05: 16-14-9-14-13

2. Steve Smith, Panthers 1,250-1,500 10-14 Safer than T.O.; 1,166-9 in 14 gms.

3. Torry Holt, Rams 1,300-1,500 10-12 Averages 1,412 yards last 7 years

4. Marvin Harrison, Colts 1,100-1,375 11-14 8 straight double-digit TD seasons

5. Chad Johnson, Bengals 1,275-1,450 7-11 Had TDs in just four games in '06!Still solid

6. Roy Williams, Lions 1,175-1,400 7-11 Could have season to remember

7. Reggie Wayne, Colts 1,100-1,350 8-11 Average last 3: 82-1,192-8.7

8. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals 1,100-1,400 7-10 4 TDs last five games of '06

9. Javon Walker, Broncos 1,050-1,250 9-12 Team needs reliable No. 2 threatStill pretty solid10. Marques Colston, Saints 1,050-1,300 8-12 869 yards, 7 TDs first 9 games of '0611. Randy Moss, Patriots 900-1,300 7-12 Should bounce back in a big way12. Lee Evans, Bills 1,100-1,275 8-10 Losman's growth will be huge plus13. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals 1,200-1,400 5-9 Just 1 TD, 65 ypg in games 7-1514. T.J. Houshmand., Bengals 1,075-1,300 7-9 Caught TDs in 8 games last year15. Donald Driver, Packers 1,150-1,300 6-9 Good thing Favre came back16. Hines Ward, Steelers 1,000-1,175 5-10 Erratic TD totals (4-12-10-4-11-6)17. Andre Johnson, Texans 1,100-1,250 5-9 If only this guy ever had a good QB18. Reggie Brown, Eagles 900-1,050 7-10 If McNabb stays healthy, watch out19. Darrell Jackson, Niners 900-1,100 6-8 Toe injury, no practice = no chemistry?20. D.J. Hackett, Seahawks 800-1,150 5-9 My breakout player; don't draft high21. Joey Galloway, Bucs 900-1,100 6-8 Risky here, but 17 TDs last 2 years22. Chris Chambers, Dolphins 800-1,050 5-8 He's soooo good, but "O" soooo badStarting to worry23. Mark Clayton, Ravens 950-1,100 5-8 Four 100-yard games last season24. Calvin Johnson, Lions 850-1,100 5-8 Exciting rookie should flourish25. Santana Moss, Redskins 400-1,100 2-8 Tough to rank with hip, groin injuries26. Laveranues Coles, Jets 1,000-1,150 5-7 85 catches a year since 200227. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets 950-1,100 5-7 Great pick as your No. 3 WR28. Terry Glenn, Cowboys 950-1,100 4-7 Savvy veteran can still get it done29. Bernard Berrian, Bears 800-1,000 5-7 Just 2 TDs last 11 games of '0630. Deion Branch, Seahawks 850-1,000 4-6 Has yet to go over 5 TDs in a season31. Donte Stallworth, Patriots 800-975 5-7 If only he'd stay healthy32. Vincent Jackson, Chargers 700-1,000 5-8 Bit of a reach here, but I believe!Getting desperate33. Santonio Holmes, Steelers 850-1,075 3-7 Really came on after Week 434. Devery Henderson, Saints 700-925 5-7 Can produce eye-popping games35. Braylon Edwards, Browns 775-1,000 5-7 Must rise above wretched QB play36. Eric Moulds, Titans 800-1,000 4-7 Only 11 TDs last four years37. Drew Bennett, Rams 750-1,050 3-7 Sneaky pick who could flourish38. Greg Jennings, Packers 700-950 4-7 All 3 TDs came in Weeks 2-539. Isaac Bruce, Rams 800-1,000 3-5 Not a bad addition to your bench40. Muhsin Muhammad, Bears 700-900 4-6 Avg. 4.5 TDs last 8 if you take out '0441. Joe Horn, Falcons 750-900 3-6 Savvy vet will be OK, but QB an issueReally desperate42. Derrick Mason, Ravens 800-975 3-5 Reunion with McNair a dud (68-750-2)43. Matt Jones, Jaguars 600-950 2-6 Risky pick, but has breakout potential44. Eddie Kennison, Chiefs 800-950 4-6 5-plus TDs last four seasons45. Kevin Curtis, Eagles 650-850 3-6 10 TDs last two seasons46. Amani Toomer, Giants 650-850 3-6 Can still produce on your bye weeks47. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts 600-800 3-6 Rookie's worth taking a chance on48. Marty Booker, Dolphins 650-775 3-6 Average last 3: 690 yards, 3.3 TDs49. Jerry Porter, Raiders 500-950 2-7 Might be good if a QB can find him50. Dwayne Jarrett, Panthers 700-975 2-7 Rookie out of USC may thriveOthers: Troy Williamson (Vikings); Mike Furrey (Lions); Peerless Price (Bills); Wes Welker (Patriots); Ted Ginn Jr. (Dolphins); Joe Jurevicius (Browns); Chris Henry (Bengals, suspended 8 games); Brandon Lloyd (Redskins); Antwaan Randle El (Redskins); Keary Colbert (Panthers); Nate Washington (Steelers).SleepersAfter about the 50th WR is taken, it's time to take some chances. Add one of these guys to your roster, expecting nothing but hoping you find that diamond in the rough:1. Brandon Jones, Titans 3 of 4 TD rec. came in last 6 weeks. Could be team's No. 12. Brandon Marshall, Broncos Battling injury woes, but if healthy, this guy is good3. Malcom Floyd, Chargers Whoever wins No. 2 WR spot on SD can have solid year4. Craig Davis, Chargers See Floyd above5. Ernest Wilford, Jaguars Another guy with injury problems, but he can produce6. Steve Smith, Giants If Toomer or Burress go down, USC rookie gets a shot7. Hank Baskett, Eagles Raw second-year player has plenty of size and speed8. Devin Hester, Bears Hey, it's fun to say he's on your team!

Ranking the tight ends

Player, team Projected yards TDs CommentCream of the crop

1. Antonio Gates, Chargers 900-1,050 8-12 32 TDs last 3 ranks 3rd in NFLA notch below

2. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs 800-950 4-8 Four straight 900-yard campaigns

3. Todd Heap, Ravens 750-850 5-7 13 TDs last two seasons

4. Jason Witten, Cowboys 750-900 5-7 Playing a hunch; don't overdraft him

5. Vernon Davis, Niners 600-900 4-8 Big breakout season on tap

6. Chris Cooley, Redskins 650-800 5-8 5 TDs from games 6-11 last year

7. Jeremy Shockey, Giants 650-800 5-7 He's consistent (6-7-7 TDs last 3)Still decent

8. Kellen Winslow, Browns 750-925 4-6 If only he had a real quarterback

9. Alge Crumpler, Falcons 650-750 4-7 See Winslow. Primed for a letdown10. Ben Watson, Patriots 700-850 3-6 Brady will spread ball around11. L.J. Smith, Eagles 200-700 1-6 Careful, he's battling injuries12. Dallas Clark 400-600 4-6 Can have big games with ManningThe next five: Heath Miller (Steelers); Randy McMichael (Rams); Greg Olsen (Bears); Desmond Clark (Bears); Bo Scaife (Titans).