Fantasy football preview: Quarterbacks

Remember what happened the year after Peyton Manning threw a league-record 49 touchdown passes in 2004?

Many fantasy owners went to their drafts the next year wondering if Manning should be taken with the first overall pick. Or maybe the second. Or third, fourth, and certainly no lower than fifth.

It was lunacy at the time -- akin to buying that high-flying stock at its peak. With 28 TD passes, Manning certainly didn't crash and burn in 2005, but owners who took him were disappointed.

This all begs the question -- where should Manning be drafted? Well, at least some of it depends on a league's scoring system.

In a league that gives QBs just 4 points for touchdown passes, having Manning (or any elite quarterback) isn't as big of a deal as having top-notch running backs and at least one stud wide receiver. But in leagues that award 6 points for a passing touchdown, Manning and the elite QBs become much more valuable.

In a league with lower points for passing touchdowns, I wouldn't worry about Manning until a good chunk of running backs and the top eight to 10 wide receivers went off the board.

In other leagues, I can see taking Manning in the late first round, early second -- just when you start having doubts about the tailbacks out there (and this year, that's earlier than most).

OK, so hopefully that gives you a better idea of what to do with Manning.

But what if you don't get him? No big deal. At all.

In higher points-per-passing-touchdown leagues, fantasy teams with Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Marc Bulger will all be more than happy. To me, those four are almost interchangeable and even if you get the last one, the total point difference by the end of the season won't be that dramatic.

As I pointed out last year, owners want consistent quarterbacks, and the top five have delivered (see chart).

Now, what if you don't get one of the Fab Five? You can play it safe and grab San Diego's Philip Rivers, Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck or Dallas' Tony Romo.

Or, you can take what I'd say is a relatively small risk and draft the Eagles' Donovan McNabb. The problem with McNabb is his injury history; he's only played in 19 games the past two seasons. But in those games, he has 38 total touchdowns. Think about that -- that's 2 TDs a game, or a 32-TD campaign if he stays healthy. And get this: McNabb had the highest points-per-game average in fantasy points last year (17.8 in one of my leagues), beating out Manning (16.6) and Brees (15.2).

Take out his injury risk, and he could easily be ranked third.

Owners who take McNabb, however, really should back him up with a high-end No. 2 -- somebody like Detroit's Jon Kitna, Arizona's Matt Leinart or Buffalo's J.P. Losman. Even the Bears' Rex Grossman or Denver's Jay Cutler would suffice.

Just don't get stuck taking a second QB late and end up with Steve McNair, Trent Green or Jeff Garcia!

Hit and run

Some quick thoughts to finish out the QB preview …

•There seems to be some in the fantasy world who are really down on Eli Manning. I'm not sure why, seeing as how he has 49 total touchdowns the past two seasons and finished in the top 10 in fantasy points last year. Yes, Tiki Barber has retired, but Manning still has very capable receivers, and he is a near lock for at least 22 touchdowns.

•Don't laugh if somebody is using Jon Kitna as their No. 1 QB. With Roy Williams, rookie Calvin Johnson and Mike Furrey at his disposal, Kitna may throw for 4,000 yards (again) with 25-plus TDs.

•Matt Leinart may break out this year and post some huge numbers. But Arizona's offensive line is still awful -- a fact impossible to ignore when forecasting fantasy numbers.

•I expect Rex Grossman to have another good season, one in which his TD numbers stay about the same (23) and his interception total dips a bit but remains high (14-18). He's a good spot-starter when your No. 1 is off, facing a really tough matchup or when the Bears are playing the Lions or Packers.

•Vince Young will be a popular pick, especially in leagues that only award 4 points for passing TDs and 6 for rushing. He will run in his fair share, but owners will also get some clunker games. He's a shaky No. 1.

•I was really high on Carolina's Jake Delhomme, originally ranking him eighth. I've since reconsidered. Although I've learned not to put much stock in the preseason, his recent performance has made me wonder if he hasn't turned into Chad Pennington. Could David Carr take actually take over for the Panthers?

•DO NOT take Brett Favre as a No. 1 QB. He'll be 38 in October (usually the death-knell age for quarterbacks), and he has no running game to set up easy passing situations. Favre will still have some big games, but not nearly enough of them to make him a reliable starter. (Full disclosure: the last QB I torched this badly in a preview column -- Grossman --ended up 12th in fantasy points last season.)

•Even in keeper leagues, I would stay away from Cleveland's Brady Quinn or Oakland's Jamarcus Russell. They are probably two years away from contributing anything significant from a fantasy perspective.