Study: D26 will see enrollment dip

Cary Elementary District 26 can expect to see fewer students walk through its doors in the next decade before enrollment numbers eventually level out, a projections survey suggests.

Superintendent Brian Coleman presented the findings of The Kasarda Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections Study at Monday’s school board meeting. The study examined recent demographics and housing trends in the main areas served by the district, as well as likely housing developments and housing turnover, to determine projected enrollment growth or decline through school year 2020-2021.

“At this point, we will do a full analysis of the study and compare predictions with what we have done,” Coleman said Tuesday. “Enrollment affects General State Aid and the study gives a good indication and provides some guidelines of where we are headed.”

The projections provided three potential outcomes: the minimum number of future students expected; the maximum number of future students expected; and the most likely number of students.

If the district experiences less than anticipated housing growth, enrollment will drop from 2,985 students to 2,251 in 2016-2017 and level off through 2020-2021, the report shows.

If housing growth meets anticipated levels, the district would enroll 376 fewer students by 2015-2016 and stabilize thereafter. Furthermore, the study suggests that if housing growth exceeds anticipated levels, the district would still experience a decline in enrollments. The total enrollment in 2013-2014 would drop from the current 2,985 to 2,898 before slowly rising to 3,029 in 2020-2021.

Crystal Lake High School District 155, Crystal Lake Elementary District 47, and Prairie Grove District 46 also participated in the study to help offset costs.

“We have projected all along that we would see a decline in enrollment,” Coleman said Tuesday. “But we weren’t sure how long that would continue. It was good to see those numbers.”