A former McHenry County man locked up for nearly five decades for the rape and murder of a 3-year-old girl soon could be a free man.

Testimony began Tuesday in a hearing that will determine whether Gary Welsh, ruled too dangerous to walk the streets just two years ago, is no longer a threat to commit acts of sexual violence and could be released outright, or under a supervised living arrangement.

A psychologist called by the Illinois Attorney General's office, which is opposing release, testified that Welsh remains a pedophile and a risk to commit further acts of sexual violence.

However, Paul Heaton added that Welsh probably could succeed under a conditional release program in which he would be closely supervised, register as a sex offender and perhaps have his movements monitored through a GPS device.

When testimony resumes Thursday, Welsh's attorney is expected to call two psychologists - one with the Illinois Department of Human Services - to testify that Welsh could be discharged without any conditions on his release.

McHenry County Judge Sharon Prather is presiding over the hearing and will rule whether, and under what conditions, Welsh can go free.

Welsh, 70, has been in state custody since September 1962, when he sexually assaulted and killed a girl he was baby-sitting in Harvard. The girl, authorities said, suffocated when Welsh pushed her face into a pillow to muffle her cries.

He had been scheduled for release from prison in December 2004 when the state moved to have him declared a sexually violent person. The designation, granted by Prather in 2007, allows the state to hold him in Department of Human Services custody until doctors there and a judge agree that he no longer is a threat.