Road map for a Chicago Blackhawks rebound
In the middle of answering a question about how he sees himself fitting into Operation Blackhawks Overhaul next season, Wilmette's Tommy Wingels took a moment to remind everyone that his new team isn't the Avalanche, the Coyotes or the Canucks.
"The roster's a bit in flux and things are changing, but people seem to forget that this was the No. 1 team in the West last year," said Wingels after signing a one-year deal on July 1. "It's still an unbelievable team.
"Your Keiths, your Seabrooks, your Toews, your Kaners - these guys are going to be the best players they are every year. It's about role players and guys further down the lineup stepping up."
An astute observation from a lifelong Hawks fan, for sure.
Last season everyone wondered how the Chicago Blackhawks would fare with so many young players needing to step up. Now - after watching them win 50 games and fail miserably in the playoffs - what should we expect from a revamped team in a division with some of the NHL's best and most improved teams?
Is it one that will make a deep playoff run? Or one that - gulp! - doesn't even qualify? Here's a look at what each key unit must accomplish from October to April for the former to become a reality.
Top six forwards: Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik, Artem Anisimov, Patrick Kane and Nick Schmaltz or Patrick Sharp
What Hawks need: Electric chemistry from Saad and Toews, consistency from Panik, and either Schmaltz to take a giant leap forward or Sharp to turn back the clock.
If Toews' inconsistency the past two seasons has been the result of the chorus line of left wingers, there's no excuse once the puck drops in October. With Saad's return, Toews should approach 30 goals and 70 points. If he doesn't, then feel free to panic.
Speaking of panic - eh, Panik - if the 26-year-old proves last season was no fluke, the top line could easily score 75-80 goals.
The second-line left wing spot should go to Schmaltz or Sharp, but Quenneville likely will give others a shot to play with Kane and Anisimov. Schmaltz has all the tools to excel, and a healthy Sharp could score 15-20 goals.
It's an exciting top six that - on paper - matches up with any top team in the league.
Bottom 6 forwards: Schmaltz or Sharp, Ryan Hartman, Tanner Kero, Tommy Wingels and some combination of Launce Bouma, John Hayden, Tomas Jurco, Laurent Dauphin, Vinnie Hinostroza, Jordin Tootoo and David Kampf
What Hawks need: Third line must prove it can score, and Wingels, Bouma and others need to get down and dirty.
Ideally, the Hawks would love Schmaltz to show he can handle responsibilities at center. That would allow Kero to center the fourth line and provide depth down the middle.
No matter what, Hartman (19 goals last season) must approach that number again as everybody else pitches in.
Right now, this is one of the most underwhelming bottom-six groups among contenders. There is hope that Kero and Hinostroza can reach a new level and Wingels, Bouma and Hayden can energize the team with fierce play in their 9-12 minutes a game.
Note: Don't be surprised if 2-4 players are traded or placed on waivers. I'm also assuming coaches decide Alex DeBrincat and Alexandre Fortin need time in the minors.
Defense: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Connor Murphy, Michal Kempny, Gustav Forsling, Michal Rozsival and one or two spots for Erik Gustafsson, Ville Pokka, Jordan Oesterle, Jan Rutta and Viktor Svedberg.
What Hawks need: A bounce-back year from Seabrook, top-four play from Murphy, with Kempny and Forsling showing improvement.
From 2010-16, Seabrook averaged 10 goals a season. Last year he scored 3. While Seabrook's primary goal is not to light the lamp, it would be nice if that number approaches double digits.
Murphy, acquired from Arizona for Niklas Hjalmarsson, is the great unknown. The right-shot defenseman should be better at stretch passes from the Hawks' zone than Hjalmarsson to initiate a quick-strike offense. Impressing coaches with defense is most important, and we'll soon learn if Murphy can do the job.
The biggest key to the blue line's success might be how much Kempny and Forsling improve. Assistant coach Ulf Samuelsson must take the positives out of last season and mold both into dependable, confident, tenacious defenders capable of taking on the best forwards every night.
Goalies: Corey Crawford, Anton Forsberg and Jean-Francois Berube
What Hawks need: Crawford to stay healthy. Period.
Maybe Forsberg can get the job done, but his track record is less than stellar in 10 NHL appearances. If Crawford goes down for 20 games or more, it could easily spell doom.
Worse-case scenarios: Crawford gets injured for a long stretch. Injuries befall some combination of Toews, Kane, Saad, Anisimov, Keith and Seabrook for 20 or more games. Panik, Hartman, Kero, Forsling and Kempny don't continue to develop. Sharp can't stay healthy.
What if all of that happens? Or even some of it? The Hawks are playing in a loaded Central Division that features Nashville (last year's West champs), Dallas (the NHL's free-agency champs), St. Louis and Minnesota (still good) and Winnipeg (ever improving). It could get ugly in a hurry, and the Hawks could miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Best-case scenario: Every positive step outlined is taken, and the Hawks use the grit, determination, moxie and leadership that was missing last April vs. Nashville to make another run at the Stanley Cup.
Wingels would love to be a part of that resurgence. He told us of how amazing it felt watching the Hawks win their first Cup under Joel Quenneville in 2010 while living in Chicago's Gold Coast.
"The night they won, I was just sitting in my bedroom," Wingels said. "We had a little balcony, and you could just hear the city erupt. People in the street, people celebrating.
"I'll never forget that moment, just being in the city while it happened. Got to see the parade and everything. It's such a contagious thing, and it's a huge, huge reason of why I signed (here).
"I think they've got an incredible opportunity to win the Stanley Cup. This window is still wide open."
Soon enough, we'll see if the Hawks have what it takes to bust through it at least one more time.
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