Rozner: Why the Chicago Blackhawks will beat Lightning in 6
Well, the international narrative has already been established.
It's the young Lightning against the ancient Blackhawks, the two-time champs looking in the mirror as they see the 2010-era Hawks that were too young and too dumb to know how inexperienced they were — and too fast for the aging Flyers.
It would be cute if entirely accurate.
Yes, Tampa is young and fast, and though the Hawks may be tired and beat up, they are hardly old and they will have three days to rest up from a brutal series with Anaheim.
The prime hockey years are 27-33, when players reach the peak of their skills and physical development. The Hawks have two players older than that in Brad Richards (35) and Marian Hossa (36).
The Hawks' nuclear line of Jonathan Toews (27), Patrick Kane (26) and Brandon Saad (22) isn't collecting social security any time soon, and Marcus Kruger (25), Andrew Shaw (23) and Teuvo Teravainen (20) have some years ahead of them yet.
The rest of the roster falls right in the middle and the average age of the current lineup is 27.1, while the Bolts' average age is 25.5. Health is a bigger factor than age when you get to June hockey and the Hawks will get two days' rest twice before there's a Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Tampa is a really good team, as witnessed by their 2-0 victories in Games 5 and 7 in New York, but the reality is not quite the same as the current portrayal of the two squads.
So let's break down the matchups:
Forward lines
If the Tampa style reminds you of playing Detroit, it should, as the Lightning are run by GM Steve Yzerman.
Their top six does most of the damage, with the first line of Valtteri Filppula and wingers Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn. Stamkos has caught fire since moving from center to wing, with 14 points in his last 12 games.
The “Triplets” form the second line, but they've been the best unit of any in the playoffs, with Tyler Johnson centering Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov and combining for 55 points.
As they've become more responsible defensively, coach Jon Cooper has not been afraid to use them in all situations.
Tampa frequently goes with seven defensemen, so the remaining five forwards are primarily used in checking situations.
The Hawks expect to get contributions from all four lines, and Joel Quenneville isn't afraid to roll them, while both teams expect their forwards to get back on defense.
The high-end skill is comparable here, but advantage Hawks in scoring depth, especially if Patrick Sharp, Teuvo Teravainen and Antoine Vermette continue developing chemistry.
Defense
Yes, the Hawks' top four is exhausted and beat up. Not exactly breaking news at this point, but they only need 4 more victories and then they can find a warm beach and some cold drinks.
They won't take the pounding Anaheim gave them, but they'll be just as tired if they start chasing the quick Tampa forwards.
Victor Hedman (6-foot-6, 230 pounds) has come into his own in the postseason (plus-11), looking like the 2009 No. 2 pick. He's dominant in his own end (seventh with 37 blocked shots) and leads the Tampa defense with 10 points.
With partner Anton Stralman, they form as good a defensive pair as there's been in the 2015 postseason. Stralman has 7 points but usually stays home so Hedman can join the offense.
Hawks fans will remember Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle from the 2010 Final, when they were part of a formidable top four in Philly that played big minutes. We need not remind you that the other two were Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen.
Coburn now plays on the second unit with Jason Garrison, forming a very physical pair. Carle plays in the third pair with Andrej Sustr. Nikita Nesterov is the seventh defenseman, but he's mostly an offensive contributor.
The Hawks have an edge in the top four, but as was the case against Anaheim, Tampa is deeper and can spread the minutes out nicely.
Goaltending
Corey Crawford was the best player on a Stanley Cup-winning team two years ago and has put aside his early playoff troubles to play very well the last 10 games, give or take a period.
Ben Bishop has never been on a stage like this and there's just no preparing for it. He looked very shaky early in the playoffs but gave up only 4 goals in four games at Madison Square Garden in the Eastern Conference finals. Bishop faced just 22 shots in a Game 7 shutout.
In this, the 10th season of the cap era, only Jonathan Quick has won two Cups as primary netminder, and Crawford could join him as the second.
Edge to the Hawks here, though Tampa can play terrific, 200-foot defense and bottle teams up in the two northern zones.
Coaching
Cooper won the Calder Cup in the AHL, championships in the USHL and NAHL and two titles in juniors. He's a fine coach, but Quenneville has two Stanley Cups and, frankly, more options.
This is pretty even, but the future Hall of Famer understands the stage better because he's been here.
Intangibles
The Hawks are on a mission, wanting to win a third Cup with the core that might lose some of its members this summer. Tampa has won five playoff series in 10 years, three of those this spring.
The Hawks are 32-0 when leading after two periods, dating to October, while the Bolts are 9-0 in the postseason when scoring first.
Both team's PKs have struggled in the postseason, but both teams have 3 shorties. On the PP, Tampa is very scary. The Hawks? Well, you how good it can be when they move the puck and don't stand around.
Brad Richards won the Conn Smythe in 2004 when the Bolts took home the big jug.
Prediction
The bottom line is rather simple.
With all due respect to Tampa and its considerable skill, the Hawks' core has decided it will win the Stanley Cup this year. It took them about eight postseason games to pick up the scent and they can smell it now.
They'll need a game or two to recapture their emotion after a brutal series, and it's easy to see them losing Game 1. After that, they could win four straight.
If the Hawks can start fast, this could be a short series — maybe five games — but for the benefit of Chicago fans who have already seen two celebrations on the road, let's call it the Hawks in six.
brozner@dailyherald.com
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