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Forecasters: This winter won't be as bad as last year

While summer ended nearly spot-on as far as average temperature goes, it probably didn't seem that way because of a soggy atmosphere and overcast skies that frequently lurked.

Fall officially starts today, with a high temperature expected near this summer's average of 71.7 degrees as recorded by the National Weather Service at O'Hare International Airport. Shorts may even be in order later this week if temperatures reach the predicted high in the low- to mid-70s, likely more pleasing to the masses than the fall average of 52.5 degrees.

Rain gear was popular in what turned out to be a summer that easily eclipsed the seasonal average 12.05 inches of precipitation. The weather service measured 17.25 inches of rain at O'Hare.

WGN weather guru Tom Skilling said heavier-than-usual cloud cover, only three days above 90 degrees, above-average precipitation and frequently strong lake breezes made summer seem cooler than its average of 71.7 degrees — just below the normal 71.8.

“What was lacking this year were the warm spells,” Skilling said.

Looking ahead to winter, there are reasons to believe it won't be as snowy or frigid as last year, said AccuWeather meteorologist Mark Paquette, a long-range forecaster.

Even the hardiest of Chicago-area denizens were frazzled by 82 inches of snow and multiple days of temperatures well below zero last winter. That compared to 30.1 inches of snowfall in 2012-13. Normal snowfall for the Chicago area is 28.4 inches.

Paquette said more Pacific Ocean air should mix with the flow from Siberia to prevent a repeat of last winter's seemingly never-ending deep freeze. The early line from AccuWeather has snowfall at or above the 28.4-inch normal, but unlikely to reach last year's 82 inches.

“It's not as scary as last winter,” Paquette said. “I think last winter was extreme.”

Jim Angel, Illinois' state climatologist, said early projections he's received from the weather service show a 2014-15 winter with above-average temperatures. Forecasters should have more information by November in an effort to gauge how winter will play out.

“The No. 1 question I've been asked is, 'Will this year be as bad as last winter?'” Angel said.

If you prefer your weather prognostications from the “Farmer's Almanac,” brace yourself.

It says winter will be colder than normal in the lower Great Lakes region that includes the Chicago area. The almanac also states that the snowiest periods will be mid-December, early and mid-January and early February.

  The waning days of summer felt like the middle of fall, as Stevenson High School football fans Rachel Mopper, left, and Kendall Kirch, center, could attest while attending a Sept. 12 game. The good news is that early forecasts suggest that the upcoming winter won't be as extreme as the last one, with snowfall expected at or slightly above the yearly average. George LeClaire/gleclaire@dailyherald.com
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