Tornadoes the topic Saturday at Fermi
Statistically, northern Illinois should see a large, violent tornado at least once every five years. But here's the thing: We haven't had one in 21.
It's “kind of scary,” meteorologist Jim Allsopp of the National Weather Service told a packed house of weather watchers Saturday at Fermilab near Batavia. “You could say that we're overdue.”
Experts at the national laboratory's 31st Annual Tornado and Severe Weather Seminar with WGN agreed the region is likely in store for severe tornadoes in the near future — based on historical data — though none has been predicted or forecast.
Their discussion, following a breakout of fierce tornadoes that ravaged seven southern states and killed hundreds last week, drew so many spectators some had to had to be turned away at the door.
While this area averages 10 to 15 weaker twisters each decade, Allsopp said, the last major event to hit locally was a devastating twister that tore through Plainfield on Aug. 28, 1990, killing 29 and injuring 353. Collectively, northern Illinois and Indiana have seen about 200 “significant” tornadoes, resulting in more than 200 deaths, going back 130 years, he said.
“Things have really been ramping up here in the last few years,” said Allsopp, who coordinates severe weather warnings for the Chicago region. “Now, I'm not going to make a prediction on that trend.”
Tornadoes happen when intense low pressure results in such fierce wind speeds that a violent, rotating column of air forms, often at speeds of more than 100 mph, and touches ground. As coverage of last week's destruction in the south showed, mammoth twisters can snatch up automobiles and homes, uproot trees, and leave paths of utter destruction in their wake.
Illinois State Climatologist Jim Angel said there were 124 tornado events of varying degree statewide in 2006 and just 19 the year before. Many tornadoes here hit over a three-month period beginning in April, often in the late afternoon or early evening. According to Angel, Will and Kankakee counties stand out at this point as centers of potential activity.
“But there's really no place in Illinois that's immune,” he said.
At the same time, meteorologists have come a long way in their ability to predict major weather events in time for people to fully prepare, said WGN-TV Chief Meterologist Tom Skilling, who agreed that a tornado similar to the twister in Plainfield might be on the horizon.
“It's just a matter of time before something like that happens here again,” he said.
Photographer Jim Reed, who wrote the book “Storm Chaser” and is known for fearless pursuits of the most dangerous storms, said he believes the world has “entered into a period of increased frequency of harshness with respect to all types of storms.”
“Regardless of what's changing it,” he said Saturday, “it is changing.”
Among the hundreds attending Saturday's seminar was David Ewoldt, 44, of Glendale Heights. He said he's been fascinated by weather since he was a boy and is amazed by what technology has done for severe weather predictions over the years.
“Our state is really overdue for some severe weather, so we should be vigilant,” he said. “It doesn't frighten me. I just want to be ready, be prepared.”