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Constable: Can Cubs get back in first in June? Maybe it doesn't matter

Winning the past two series against the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates, the Chicago Cubs are ending May on a nice run. But they still sit in second place on this last day of May. Cubs fans, who transformed from long-suffering to quickly impatient after the 2016 World Series championship, look to June as the month when their Cubs surely will bust out and take control of the division. Of course, June also has another reputation in Chicago - the "June swoon."

Cubs fans might talk about a "June swoon," but that is rarely the case. Most years, Cubs teams have been out of the running by June, and when seemingly good Cubs teams do collapse, the downfall typically occurs later in the summer.

Since the Chicago franchise started playing baseball in 1876, the franchise has endured 115 seasons with their team out of first place at the end of May. Since the 1945 season, when the Cubs went to the World Series, the team has recorded just five seasons when the team ended May in first place and fell out of the lead by the end of June. And three of those teams that dropped out of first in June - 1989, 2003 and 2017 - rallied in July, August and September to win the division.

Generally, seasons can't be defined by one month. Most follow the path of the 2014 Cubs, who were in fifth place at the end of May, in fifth place at the end of June, and finished the season in fifth place.

The only season when a "June swoon" might have cost the Cubs a title was in 1970. That team - led by Hall-of-Famers Ernie Banks, Billy Williams, Fergie Jenkins and Ron Santo - was in first place at the end of May with a record of 25 wins and 19 losses, 4.5 games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates and looking to make amends for the 1969 heartbreak. But June saw those Cubs drop 18 of 28 games to fall into fourth place. It was the team's only losing month of the season, but June dug a hole too deep and the team finished second. Had the Cubs sported a modest 15-13 June, the team would have finished the season tied for first.

Likewise, one good month rarely makes for a successful season. But the 1984 Cubs can make a case. That team was 27-20 and in second place at the end of May. Then came an inconsistent 15-14 June. The team played well in July, but the Cubs still found themselves 4.5 games out of first on July 27. Then the team caught fire, squeaked into first place on Aug. 1 and rode a 20-10 month to nail down the National League Eastern Division championship.

The 2016 Cubs, never in serious danger of losing the division, used an even better 22-6 August to guarantee their championship.

https://i.dailyherald.com/public-service/2018/CubsSeason/

The best month in team history (with more than a handful of games) is June 1880, when the squad, then known as the Chicago White Stockings, went 16-1 for a .941 monthly winning percentage. The worst month of all time was recorded in April 1981, when the Cubs finished 2-13. The 1997 Cubs lost their first 14 games but finished April on a high note to notch a 6-19 record for the month.

Fans might not remember how desperate things looked this time of year for last year's Cubs.

Coming off a dismal 12-16 May, the Cubs bumped up slightly to 15-13 in June. The 2017 Cubs won on July 15 to even their record at 45-45. Then, the team went 47-25 the rest of the season to win the division for a third straight year.

The Cubs have never made four straight postseason appearances. Fans probably will have to wait a few more months to see if these 2018 Cubs can make history. But if this team breaks the 1880 team record for winningest month this June with a 27-1 "June boom" record, you can make postseason plans.

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