Bears could recoup Round 3 pick by trading down in Round 1
It's no secret that Bears GM Ryan Pace would love to acquire an NFL draft pick in Friday's third round, which the Bears lack as the result of trading up one spot to take Mitch Trubisky last year.
With multiple teams needing a quarterback and the Bears sitting at No. 8, Pace's best chance to add a third-round pick or more is to trade back in Round 1. But how far back can the Bears trade and still get one of the eight non-quarterbacks that Pace says they have identified as worthy of their first-round pick?
My best guess is the Bears can't go much lower than No. 12. If four quarterbacks are chosen in the first 12 picks, eight non-QBs remain, so one of the Bears' players has to be there. Since the Bears don't need a QB, they're in the ideal spot to benefit from a team that does. They can get that missing third-rounder by trading down and still get a player they like later in the first round.
"We've shown in the last couple years that you can maneuver in the draft to acquire more picks," Pace said Tuesday. "And there will be opportunities to do that, if it fits. There might (also) be opportunities to go up where we lose some picks; every scenario's on the table.
"In a perfect world, if we could move around in the draft to get another third-round pick, that'd be beneficial."
Although a lot of this year's QB mania is driven by need, it wouldn't be as intense if teams didn't consider this a bountiful crop of passers. Best-case scenario for the Bears is if they're on the clock at No. 8 and one of the top four quarterbacks - Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen or Josh Allen - is still on the board.
The move that makes the most sense, on paper, is a trade down to No. 12 with the Bills, who need a quarterback to take over for placeholder A.J. McCarron. It seems inevitable there will be trades that shake up the first round.
"Especially with the QB situation this year, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some movement," Pace said.
It's not as advantageous for the Bears if the top four quarterbacks are all gone by No. 8, but they could get some calls from teams interested in trading up for Louisville QB Lamar Jackson. The consensus is No. 8 is too high for Jackson, but it only takes one team to fall in love for a trade to happen.
The top candidate at that point would be the Cardinals at No. 15. But if the Bears trade back that far, there's a chance they miss out on all eight of the players they have targeted.
Although they've traded up the past two years in the first round, it seems unlikely the Bears would do it again. Pace's mantra is building through the draft, and the team has multiple holes, so it would be surprising to relinquish the draft picks the GM values as the lifeblood of an organization.
The Bears currently have two picks in the fourth round - 105 and 115 overall - and one each in the fifth (145 overall), sixth (181) and seventh (224).
In you're wondering about the eight players the Bears have targeted, here's my guess: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley; North Carolina State Edge rusher Bradley Chubb; Notre Dame OG Quenton Nelson; Alabama S/CB Minkah Fitzpatrick; Georgia ILB Roquan Smith; Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds; Florida State S Derwin James; and Texas-San Antonio DE-OLB Marcus Davenport.
Ohio State CB Denzel Ward may be a top-10 talent, but I don't believe the Bears will invest more at that position after re-signing Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara. Boston College Edge Harold Landry and Washington DT Vita Vea also could be on the Bears' list.
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