Ostrowski: Arrieta's looking good again
Since the calendar turned to July, Jake Arrieta has made more money with each start.
In his last nine outings, Arrieta has a 2.03 ERA, allowing 39 hits and 5 home runs. But there was also a nine-start stretch in April and May when he had a 5.51 ERA, giving up 58 hits and 10 dingers.
Arrieta is 1 out shy of a quality start in every July and August game. But only seven quality starts in his first 16 outings.
Let's say the Cubs win their division and get anything resembling Arrieta's current form over the next six weeks. Is there an argument that it shouldn't be Arrieta vs. Washington's Max Scherzer on Oct. 6 in Game 1 of the NLDS?
After Arrieta's seventh straight game allowing just 1 or 2 earned runs, Joe Maddon explained what he's witnessing from his starting pitcher.
"The velocity is maybe down a click, but I'm seeing more 93s and 94s popping. I'm seeing command of his breaking stuff. I'm seeing the changeup being more utilized, which I like."
Maddon's right about Arrieta's changeup. He's going to that pitch 7.6-percent of the time, his highest rate since becoming a Cub.
The assumption has been that this is Arrieta's last season on the north side. But that was made after Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks finished in the top three of NL Cy Young voting in 2016. Jose Quintana has lasted only five innings in two of his last three starts.
Can the Cubs really say goodbye to Arrieta if he has a strong finish? Over the last three years, his second half numbers include a 2.03 ERA in 235.1 innings. To be fair, his magical 2015 post-all star break run had an all-time dominant 0.75 ERA, with 113 strikeouts and 23 walks.
A Cy Young Award winner. A top ten finisher for that award in his previous three seasons. But he'll be entering his age 32 season.
If the Cubs want to sign Arrieta, they can sign Arrieta. There's $40 million coming off the books between John Lackey, Wade Davis, Jon Jay, and Koji Uehara. They already said goodbye to Miguel Montero's $14 million. The new television contract is coming in 2020.
Arrieta's estimated market value is 5 years, $143.7 million, according to spotrac.com. But the true market is whatever a team needing a starter is willing to give.
Look to comps like Johnny Cueto (6 years, $130M) and Jordan Zimmermann (5 years, $110M) as a starting point.
The top of the starter's market will be Yu Darvish entering his age 31 season. There's also Lance Lynn and his 3.05 ERA following Tommy John surgery, the same age as Darvish.
Arrieta will have the opportunity to make the Cubs look silly. How do you let a possible number one or two starter walk away when you're built to win now?
That all depends on how he performs the rest of the way.
• Joe Ostrowski is a co-host of the "Hit & Run" baseball show from 9 a.m. to noon Sundays on WSCR 670-AM The Score with Barry Rozner. Follow him on Twitter@JoeO670.