Be wary of politicians' promises about graduated taxes

By Matt Paprocki

Guest columnist

As the 2018 election season heats up, so too is talk of enacting a progressive tax. Democratic gubernatorial nominee J.B. Pritzker - a billionaire accused of lying about funneling money oversees to avoid taxes - touts this kind of income tax as a way to raise taxes on the rich while providing a tax cut for the middle class.

On one hand, Pritzker is asking to raise taxes on wealthy people like him. On the other, Pritzker has refused to release these proposed income tax brackets, despite calls from the Chicago Tribune and other outlets to do so. But now, Pritzker and other politicians are asking Illinoisans to "trust them."

If there is one thing we have learned in Illinois, it's to be cautious around politicians who demand their trust. Because once you get past the political rhetoric, the numbers just don't add up. The truth is a progressive income tax in Illinois would mean a tax hike for almost everyone. And the first step toward that tax hike could take shape this spring.

To implement a progressive tax, you have to change the state constitution. That means lawmakers need to pass an amendment, which would then go before voters for approval.

Lawmakers in both the House and Senate would need to approve an amendment with supermajority by May 6. Then, the measure would be added to the November election ballot. Voters would be asked to vote yes or no on a progressive tax without knowing what their new rates would be. But there are plenty of alarming examples of what lawmakers may have planned. A proposal from state Chicago Democratic Rep. Rob Martwick gives insight into how such a tax might play out. Martwick's plan guarantees a tax increase for a typical family with a household income over $24,000. Around 83 percent of families in Cook County could expect a tax increase under a progressive income tax plan like this.

These rates are hardly a tax on the rich. They instead expose the lies of whose considered rich under a progressive tax: the middle class. This new tax increase would be devastating for Illinois' economy. A new analysis by the Illinois Policy Institute indicates that if Martwick's tax plan were enacted, it would cost the economy $5.5 billion and 34,500 jobs in the first year alone.

Thankfully, several Illinois suburban lawmakers have promised their constituents they will not help pass a new constitutional amendment for a progressive tax. House Resolution 975 is a legislative commitment by lawmakers to say no to a progressive income tax hike. Every Republican lawmaker except one - Arlington Heights state Rep. David Harris - has signed onto the resolution. By singling himself out, Rep. Harris leaves a tax hike on the table for his constituents.

Tax hikes hurt the economy and the middle class. Period. To better protect the middle class, lawmakers should instead move forward legislation by state Sen. Tom Cullerton, a Villa Park Democrat, and state Rep. Allen Skillicorn, an East Dundee Republican, that enacts a spending cap that would eliminate the need for future tax hikes. Coming in the form of a constitutional amendment, the spending cap ties government spending to what taxpayers can afford. Instead of a tax hike, it would provide budget limits and certainty.

There is still hope for this great state. But we need to proceed with extreme caution when politicians tell us to "trust them."

Matt Paprocki is executive vice president of the Illinois Policy Institute, a Chicago-based think tank that promotes smaller government and free market principles.