Rozner: Cubs have chance to defy history again
After an interminable spring training that followed a very short winter, the Cubs' quest to repeat finally begins Sunday night in St. Louis with a question that may not sound much different from the past, but is significantly so.
Not so long ago it was, "Why not us?" Now, it is merely, "Why not?"
You truly have to reach to find reasons why the Cubs can't become the first team since the 2000 Yankees to go back-to-back, when New York won three in a row and four in five years.
That dynasty - which would have been five in six years if not for an Arizona rally in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series - was marked by the "Core Four" of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera, who were ages 25, 27, 27 and 29 when the Yanks went back-to-back in 1999.
No team has done it since, but it can be argued that no team had the kind of core the Cubs currently possess.
Addison Russell is 23, Javy Baez 24, Kyle Schwarber 24, Kris Bryant 25 and Anthony Rizzo is the old man at 27.
You like the chances of that group - the Fab Five, as it were - staying together and performing at a high level for the next five or six years?
That doesn't even include the likes of Albert Almora (22) and Willson Contreras (24), both of whom played big roles in the Cubs finally winning a championship and will have much bigger roles this season.
If Baez is at second for Ben Zobrist (35), the Cubs can start a lineup, with Jason Heyward (27) in right field, that will feature eight players 27 years old or younger.
Crazy.
Last November, the Cubs had the youngest roster of position players of any champ in almost 50 years, and there's good reason to think their core will continue to get better.
The starting rotation has age and many miles, especially in the case of Jon Lester (33) and John Lackey (38). Jake Arietta (31) has a young arm, and he's auditioning for a big contract.
Kyle Hendricks (27) has only had two full seasons starting in the big leagues and it says here he's destined for stardom, maybe even a Cy Young Award this season.
Mike Montgomery (27) has really just begun his career, and Brett Anderson (29) has tossed only 685 big-league innings because of injuries.
Wade Davis (31) should be in his prime, and Davis is as dominant as any closer in the game when he's healthy.
The Cubs have stacked the rest of the bullpen with flexible parts, so Joe Maddon can mix and match and enjoy himself all season, but should there be a need at any point in the rotation or bullpen, the Cubs have options at Iowa.
They also have some tremendous young talent to trade to bolster any part of the 25-man roster that might run into trouble.
History suggests the Cubs will suffer some injuries on the pitching staff this season, and it makes sense when you consider the stressful innings they've thrown in October and November the past two years.
And the only teams in the National League in the last 20 years to reach three straight LCS were St. Louis (four years, 2011-14), Philadelphia (2008-10), St. Louis (2004-06) and Atlanta (eight straight in the '90s). The Cubs' position players, however, are younger than any of those teams.
It will, as always, come down to the health and effectiveness of their pitching, but with a seemingly easy path to the postseason in a soft Central Division, the Cubs have a big advantage over National League threats in Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York and Washington.
The simple question is to ask why will the Cubs be different from the past 16 teams that failed to repeat, and why would you bet on them given that history?
But maybe the better question is, why not?
brozner@dailyherald.com
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