Economic outlook favorable, experts say at Lake County event
The recovery has been less robust than they would like but there are favorable indicators locally and nationally, experts said Tuesday at an economic forecast luncheon hosted by the GLMV Chamber of Commerce in Vernon Hills.
Lake County Board Chairman Aaron Lawlor joined the financial pros at the White Deer Run Golf Club, where they discussed encouraging signs, as well as uncertainties on the horizon.
Lawlor said it is challenging to fill some positions in the public sector, such as engineers and other specialties. Lake County, for example, is looking for replacements for top jobs in public works, transportation and information technology, he said.
"It is a much more competitive wage environment," he said.
Noting other economic indicators, Lawlor said a drop in county income tax revenue is more indicative of people leaving rather than low wages.
He said integrated approaches between public and private interests are keys for training and connecting candidates with jobs and growing the economy.
"There's a mismatch between the skills of our workforce and the needs our employers," he said.
A drop in foreclosures and increase in recorder fees, which is an indicator of home sales, as well as more sales tax revenue than budgeted, are good signs locally, he added.
In the bigger picture, internet sales are hurting traditional retailers, which can have a ripple effect on local strip centers, according to Nicholas F. Begley, chief credit officer at Libertyville Bank & Trust.
"Our doors have been open for lending all the way through the recession (but) people were scared," he said. With little economic growth, lenders basically were "swapping deals" but there has been increased activity, he said.
"Business are reinvesting now. They're actually asking us for lines of credit to get their factories back up to snuff," Begley said.
On the stock market, everything is up but not by the same amounts, said Spencer Klein, senior portfolio manager at MB Wealth Management.
"I would argue this market is not based on the Trump election entirely," he said. Corporate profits began to rebound last summer but it took time to be widely noticed.
"The profit cycles started to turn," he said. "Smart people saw it and started investing."
Kathy Graham, managing director of investments for US Bank, said housing demand remains strong. Existing home sales in January were the highest since March 2007 and the supply was at a 34-year low, she said.
She said consumer confidence is on the mend, but described it as not being too hot or too cold. She predicted moderate inflation going forward with no recession on the horizon.