LeGere's keys to AFC and NFC championships
With a trip to Super Bowl LI at stake in Sunday's NFC and AFC conference championship showdowns, here's a look at the keys to each game.
Packers (12-6) at Falcons (12-5)
When: 2:05 p.m. Sunday
TV / radio: FOX / WSCR 670-AM
Line: Falcons by 5
Keys to the game:1. The Falcons' ability to put pressure Packers' QB Aaron Rodgers AND sack him.
Rodgers is playing at an elite level that few quarterbacks have ever approached. He has 24 TD passes and just 1 interception in his last nine games. Forcing Rodgers out of the pocket by pressuring him only makes him more dangerous because he's always looking downfield for the big play. The Falcons' pass rush, specifically LB Vic Beasley (NFL-best 15 ½ sacks), has to get Rodgers on the ground. Beasley doesn't have much help, since DE Adrian Clayborn (5 sacks) went on I.R. last week after suffering a torn biceps vs. the Seahawks. The Falcons were only 26th in sack percentage in the regular season and, aside from Beasley and Clayborn, no one had more than 3 sacks. The Packers are 13th in sacks allowed.
2. The health of Falcons WR Julio Jones.
QB Matt Ryan's No. 1 target did not practice Wednesday but is expected to play Sunday with a nagging sprained toe that kept him out of two games late in the regular season. Jones still finished second in the NFL with 1,409 yards on 83 catches, including 6 touchdowns. It was his third straight season with more than 1,400 receiving yards. A healthy Jones could wreak havoc on a Packers secondary that is the team's Achilles heel. The Packers were 31st in passing yards allowed in the regular season and 30th in average gain allowed per pass. Injuries have further weakened the secondary. Safety Morgan Burnett (thigh) and cornerback Quinten Rollins (concussion) are questionable.
3. The health of all the Packers' wide receivers.
Rodgers didn't seem to miss his favorite receiver, Jordy Nelson (broken ribs), last week, throwing for 355 yards vs. the Cowboys. Nelson had 97 catches for 1,257 yards and an NFL-best 14 receiving TDs in the regular season. If plays this week, he won't be anywhere close to 100 percent. In addition, WR Davante Adams (sprained left ankle) barely practiced this week. Adams was second to Nelson with 75 catches, 997 yards and 12 touchdowns in the regular season. Two other Packers WRs, former Illini Geronimo Allison (hamstring) and Jeff Janis (quadriceps), were limited this week.
By the numbers: Rodgers' 34-yard TD pass to TE Richard Rodgers last week came on a "free play," after the Cowboys jumped offsides. That was Rodgers' 14th TD pass on a free play since 2012. No other quarterback has more than three such TDs since 2012. … The Falcons' defense was 28th in passing yards and 27th in points allowed.
Steelers (13-5) at Patriots (15-2)
When: 5:40 p.m. Sunday
TV / Radio: CBS / WSCR 670-AM
Line: Patriots by 5 ½.
Keys to the game:1. The Patriots' ability to slow Le'Veon Bell.
No team has managed to do that in more than two months. In his last eight games, all victories, Bell has averaged 146.5 rushing yards. That includes two playoff games. Bell rushed for 167 yards against the Dolphins and then 170 against the Chiefs, the two most productive postseason rushing games in franchise history. In Week 7, the Patriots held Bell to 81 yards on 21 carries in a 27-16 victory in Pittsburgh, but he caught 10 passes for 68 yards. The Patriots' defense tied for third in rushing yards allowed and was No. 8 in average gain allowed per rush. The Steelers were 14th in rushing yards, but that's partly because Bell was suspended for the first three games for violating the league's substance abuse program by missing multiple drug tests.
2. The Steelers' red-zone offense.
They failed to reach the end zone in their 18-16 divisional-round victory, settling for 6 Chris Boswell field goals. In four red-zone possessions last week, the Steelers had 3 field goals and an interception. In the regular season, the Steelers were tied for 12th in red-zone touchdowns, converting 29 of 49 (59.2 percent) of their opportunities. The Patriots' defense gave up touchdowns on 23 of 44 red-zone trips by opponents, tying them for No. 8. Overall, the Patriots had the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. They have allowed an average of just 12.9 points in their last 8 games, although that includes games against the 49ers, the Rams and the Jets, twice.
3. The Steelers' ability to keep LeGarrette Blount out of the end zone.
In the Patriots' 27-16 win in Week 7, Blount had a season-best 127 yards on 24 carries and scored 2 of his NFL-best 18 rushing TDs. Blount first played for the Patriots in 2013, then signed with the Steelers before the 2014 season. Late that year, upset when he didn't get any carries in a game in which Le'Veon Bell rushed 33 times for 2014 yards, Blount walked off the field before the final whistle. He was cut the next day, then scooped up by the Patriots. His 299 carries and 1,161 yards this season were career bests.
By the numbers: The Patriots have defeated the Steelers in 9 of their last 12 meetings. … The Steelers had 30 sacks in the second half of the season, and if they pressure Patriots QB Tom Brady, he will rush some throws to avoid getting hit. (If he does happen to get touched by a Steeler, Brady will whine about it.) Last week the Texans sacked Brady twice and hit him several other times, and he completed just 18 of 38 passes with 2 interceptions for an un-Brady-like 68.6 passer rating.
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