advertisement

Rozner: Cubs defy odds, history with pennant

Almost any Cubs fan will default to the odds, an understandable resignation given the circumstances.

Nearly every one of you has set the wager at a billion-to-1, the chances of the team ever reaching the World Series in your lifetime.

But it wasn't actually quite that high.

If you go back to 2011, the Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.

On Sept. 28, 2011, the Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with 2 innings to play.

The Red Sox had only a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore that night, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.

The Rays had a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Dan Johnson also down to his last strike before his monumental, game-tying home run.

Multiply all four together, and according to noted mathematician Nate Silver, you get a combined probability of one chance in 278 million that of all those events would occur, coming together at once and creating the greatest night in baseball history.

It created something else rather significant. It created the 2016 Chicago Cubs.

If the Red Sox had made the 2011 playoffs, Terry Francona would not have been fired. If he hadn't been fired, Theo Epstein never would have left Boston.

But the Red Sox crumbled, Francona got his pink slip and the Cubs at that very moment just happened to be looking for someone to take over their baseball operation.

Yup, 278-million-to-1. So much for the odds.

"Baseball is a funny game," Epstein said. "And life can be funny, too. No one could have possibly predicted all of this."

Epstein's Cubs reached the World Series for the first time since 1945 Saturday at 9:45 p.m. and touched off a party in Wrigleyville unlike any ever seen in these parts.

With apologies to Jon Bon Jovi and all who have hit their knees in the last seven decades, the Cubs are halfway there - and it has little to do with livin' on a prayer.

It has everything to do with a plan, a plan that was mocked and derided by the cynics incapable of seeing past the obtuseness of it all.

Not that Epstein cared.

The man had a formula for building a World Series team. He just didn't imagine he could do it from scratch in five years.

But he has done precisely that - and now the Cubs are halfway to a dream season.

The magic number is 4.

"It's great to be this far and we celebrate that," Epstein said. "We'll get back to business soon because we have unfinished business, but we'll take this tonight and make sure we celebrate that."

For the thousands who have waited since 1945 to say they saw the Cubs in the World Series again, and for the millions who have doubted they would witness it, this is a wondrous and bewildering occasion.

The Cubs are built to last, young and good and sustainable - many bites at the apple, as it were - but there are no guarantees of a return engagement, so halfway there is not enough.

It is not nearly enough.

And it's too painful to consider the downside, because as the Bears proved in 2006, getting there and losing is worse than not getting there at all.

So now comes the real pressure - and maybe the real pleasure.

Celebrate they may, and celebrate they have, but come what may the Cubs must win the World Series or face the unkindest of music, the most cruel of jokes.

No one wants to say the Cubs finally made it to a World Series, and, of course, lost.

The Cubs got there Saturday night at Wrigley Field before 42,386 crazed fanatics, and they did it against the very best there is, Clayton Kershaw.

The Dodgers monster starter looked uncomfortable from the beginning and the Cubs had good swings throughout Kershaw's 5 innings, posting 5 runs on 7 hits and a couple of home runs. They also got a few breaks along the way, perhaps cashing in on a century's worth they've saved up.

At the same time, Kyle Hendricks was absolutely brilliant, forcing more Greg Maddux comparisons, keeping the Dodgers off balance and breezing through 7⅓ strong innings on only 2 hits.

When Aroldis Chapman got the final out for a 5-0 victory, Cubs players, execs and families poured out onto the field and celebrated with the faithful, who endured this rebuild and got their reward Saturday.

But the Cubs to a man say that they have not reached their goal, that the Cleveland Indians await and that the real test has not yet been taken.

In less than two weeks, they hope to tell a very different story.

So if you made a deal with the Devil Saturday morning, if you sold your tortured soul for a chance to see the Cubs in a World Series, this is your time.

Pay up and enjoy the next 11 days, because it won't get any hotter than this.

Rejoice Chicago, you're four wins away from the real party.

brozner@dailyherald.com

• Hear Barry Rozner on WSCR 670-AM and follow him @BarryRozner on Twitter.

Article Comments
Guidelines: Keep it civil and on topic; no profanity, vulgarity, slurs or personal attacks. People who harass others or joke about tragedies will be blocked. If a comment violates these standards or our terms of service, click the "flag" link in the lower-right corner of the comment box. To find our more, read our FAQ.