advertisement

Ostrowski: Inside the numbers of the Cubs-Giants series

Four days of rest ended up being just what the Cubs needed to start the second half of the season. After dropping nine of 11 games going into the all-star break, the first series they lost was their 11th after the break to Colorado.

While they accomplished that after just four days of rest, regular season baseball isn't October baseball. Here's a closer look at some other baseball numbers that matter:

Starting pitching

Four of the top five starting pitcher ERAs in baseball will throw in this series: Kyle Hendricks (2.13) and Jon Lester (2.44) of the Cubs; and Madison Bumgarner (2.74) and Johnny Cueto (2.79) of the Giants.

Lester and John Lackey have the experience. They've pitched in a combined 39 playoff games, including nine World Series matchups. Hendricks and Jake Arrieta earned their time in the postseason during the Cubs 2015 run. Hendricks failed to go five innings in either of his two starts, but his ERA is nearly half of what it was a year ago. Arrieta admittedly hit the wall in the NLDS. He has had two fewer starts and 32 fewer innings than a year ago. The innings decrease is also a product of the fourth highest walk rate in the NL at 9.6-percent.

Bumgarner will go down as one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all-time. He has a 0.79 ERA in his last nine playoff games. The Giants can start their ace only once in a short series due to their wild-card game. Cueto surrendered only two hits in a complete game against the Mets in last year's World Series. Jeff Samardzija has a 4.59 ERA against left handed hitters this year. Matt Moore gives San Francisco a second lefty to throw at the Cubs.

Advantage: Even

Relief pitching

It's Aroldis Chapman time. Some felt the Cubs overpaid for Chapman. We're about to find out if that's the case. He'll take his 1.01 northside ERA to the mound in nearly every high-leverage situation late in games. With a healthy Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop, the Cubs will have the option to shorten the game if Joe Maddon wants to pull his starting pitching after six innings.

The Giants bullpen has been a mess. Sergio Romo became the team's closer on Sept. 20 with his first save of the year. Romo hasn't allowed a run in this last six appearances.

Big advantage: Cubs

Offense

The Cubs and Giants are first and second in the NL in on-base percentage, but that doesn't mean the offenses are very close. The Cubs hit 69 more home runs and scored 93 more runs than San Francisco. Kris Bryant will probably be the NL MVP, with teammate Anthony Rizzo also receiving votes. The Cubs also have more depth.

Big advantage: Cubs

Defense

Every metric available will show that the Cubs have the best defense around, and there's a large gap. That's going to be the case with elite defenders such as Addison Russell, Jason Heyward, and Anthony Rizzo. Don't forget the ability to use Albert Almora late in games if he makes the playoff roster.

However, the Giants defense ranks very high. Buster Posey is baseball's best pitch framer. It continues up the middle with shortstop Brandon Crawford and second baseman Joe Panik.

Advantage: Cubs

Manager

Joe Maddon and Bruce Bochy are both considered two of the best in the game. Maddon is a three-time manager of the year and Bochy has three World Series rings since 2010. The AL wild-card game reminded us that managers matter.

Advantage: Giants

Prediction: Cubs in 4

• Joe Ostrowski is a co-host of the "Hit & Run" baseball show from 9 a.m. to noon Sundays on WSCR 670-AM The Score with Barry Rozner. Follow him on Twitter@JoeO670.

Article Comments
Guidelines: Keep it civil and on topic; no profanity, vulgarity, slurs or personal attacks. People who harass others or joke about tragedies will be blocked. If a comment violates these standards or our terms of service, click the "flag" link in the lower-right corner of the comment box. To find our more, read our FAQ.