Bernfield: Cubs don't have to rush next Arrieta deal
What does Nationals' right-hander Stephen Strasburg's seven-year, $175 million contract mean for Jake Arrieta's future?
The Cubs' ace is making $10.7 million this year and will go to arbitration to determine his salary again next year. He becomes a free agent following the 2017 season. Before picking up Saturday's win, Arrieta entered that game with a 22-1 record and a 0.92 ERA over his last 27 starts. Included in that stretch are two no-hitters and the National League Cy Young Award. He has more no-hitters in that stretch than losses, and since the end of the 2014 season, he has been one of baseball's best pitchers.
Arrieta wants to remain in Chicago and pitch for the Cubs long term, but he's not going to take a hometown discount.
"You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid," Arrieta said last week when asked about his expectations for his next contract. "I don't think that changes with any guy you ask. Guys want to be compensated fairly. It's something you see happens around baseball every year. There are not many guys who can pitch at the top of the rotation just floating around the league. That's why starting pitching is so valuable."
Strasburg will now be paid like a top-of-the-rotation starter, despite never winning the Cy Young Award or posting an ERA below 3.00 over four full seasons. But he's 27 years old, and the Nationals believe they are paying for improved future performance.
Arrieta turned 30 in March. In the first season of a new contract - assuming he doesn't sign a new deal before his current one expires - he'll be 32. He will be older than Price, Greinke and Scherzer were at the time they signed their contracts.
And the price for elite pitching is only going up. Last off-season, David Price secured seven years and $217 million from Boston. Zach Greinke got $206.5 million over six years with the Diamondbacks. The year before, Max Scherzer got seven years and $210 million from Washington.
That's a lot of money to pay a pitcher whose value will only depreciate with every pitch he throws. Arrieta may be great, but there's no pitch that can strike out Father Time.
Arrieta also ascended to the ace role in only one year. Pitchers such as Price, Scherzer and Greinke, who earned megadeals over the last few seasons, had much longer track records of success. They were safer bets.
Right now, Arrieta is unhittable. His consistent dominance since last year's All-Star break is historic. He is the Cubs' clear number one starter - a key ingredient when building a championship team.
But the Cubs will - and should - wait until they are confident in Arrieta's ability to consistently perform over multiple years before handing him the largest contract in franchise history. Three full seasons of elite performance would make him a much better bet despite his age.
The Cubs have the deep farm system required to trade for a cost-controlled pitcher or two who could develop into their next ace. If Arrieta's price tag doesn't come down, thank him for the memories and find the young arms to make new ones.
• Jordan Bernfield is an anchor and co-host of "Inside The Clubhouse" on WSCR 670-AM The Score. He also works as a play-by-play broadcaster for ESPN. Follow him on Twitter@JordanBernfield.