Lincoln supporter says numbers show St. Charles school should stay open

Denton Morris believes if St. Charles school board members close Lincoln and Wasco elementary schools, they will be making a mistake costly to every district taxpayer.

But it may take a decade to know if he's right.

Morris is an engineering physicist at Fermilab and one of the most vocal members of a passionate group of Lincoln Elementary School supporters. During the past few months, Lincoln fans have spent hours making a case to keep the district's oldest and smallest school open. Closing Lincoln, as well as Wasco Elementary, is one of four options being considered to save costs in the face of potential state budget cuts, a pending property tax freeze and ongoing debate over pension reform - any of which could make a multimillion dollar impact on District 303's budget.

Lincoln proponents have given hours of testimony at school board meetings since the building went on the chopping block. They've built floats expressing their love for Lincoln in the city's holiday parade. They're planning a human circle of support around Lincoln the day before the next school board meeting.

For his part, Morris has crunched the numbers. His computer is awash in census data, housing sales trends, unemployment numbers, birthrates, stock market performance, and wage and income growth forecasts. He's used it all to create what he believes is an accurate predictor of the district's population trend for the next decade.

"Right now our enrollment is low, and it's understandable why it's low with the recession and housing bubble," Morris said. "That's a straw man argument."

Mistake made?

Morris said he believes the school district's enrollment projection committee erred in which numbers to accept from a paid expert's district population study. The panel put faith in the expert's low and middle numbers and tossed out any notion of substantial population growth, based on recent birth trends and input from district communities that there would not be any new, large housing developments coming.

St. Charles Aldermen Steve Gaugel has disputed that claim by citing pending developments at the old St. Charles Mall site and Pheasant Run properties. He believes St. Charles could see as many as 1,600 new residential units.

Morris believes District 303 needs all its elementary schools even without any new housing construction. His projections show a continued population lull for the next five years, but then the district's elementary school population will move back to levels district officials say are high enough to keep the schools open.

Morris said a huge problem is the district's belief there will be no significant turnover in current housing stock and no new housing developments.

"The reality is we already have enough housing to hold the students needed to justify keeping the elementary schools open. We can see that in our schools right now," Morris said. "We don't even need new houses, but the reality is we're also getting new houses."

A community survey found closing Lincoln and Wasco elementary schools was the most popular of four alternatives, with about 32 percent of the 1,257 responders voting to close the two schools. The second choice, at 27 percent, was to do nothing and wait. The third, at 23 percent, was closing Haines Middle School and keeping sixth-graders at the elementary schools. Closing Haines, Lincoln and Wasco and putting a $45 million building referendum question on the ballot was the least popular option.

Lincoln is the oldest, smallest and least energy-efficient school in the district. It can't accommodate students with special needs very well. Parents didn't dispute those flaws at an October meeting, one of 12 public forums on alternatives for dealing with lower enrollment, but disputed the district's enrollment projections.

Next move

Morris said he believes the best move now is to do nothing. He believes the state is unlikely to resolve its budget deadlock until possibly the next gubernatorial election. That means pension reform and a local property tax freeze probably won't happen either.

And that would allow for what Morris sees as the best options to make the district more cost-effective.

In a few years, the current low elementary school populations will hit the middle schools. That would be an ideal time to close and/or renovate one or two middle schools. And, as the elementary school population rebounds starting in about year six, that may be a good time to switch the entire district into a grade-level center setup similar to what already exists at the district's Davis and Richmond schools.

Those changes save money without losing any elementary buildings, Morris said. That's important, because closing elementary schools now won't leave enough classroom space for the elementary population rebound he forecasts. Morris said that rebound means forking out as much as $40 million to build a new elementary school 10 years from now. That compares to the roughly $15 million the district would save over those same 10 years by closing Lincoln and Wasco.

"If they're right about the population drop, I'll take my $15 million," Morris said. "That's a no-brainer. But if they're wrong, we're out $40 million to build a new school. We can save money without that risk."

Superintendent Don Schlomann has said there seems to be little chance the district's overall population will grow within the next decade. The district has about 12,500 students now, and there's lot of empty space in district buildings, he said. Waiting is one option, he pointed out. "If you want to wait and keep the status quo, tell that to the (school) board," he said..

School board members will next debate the school closings Monday night. They will take a final vote Jan. 11.

Numbers: School board to debate closings Monday night