Chicago Cubs win but need more 'quality' from starters
Getting quality starts has been a problem for the Cubs since the all-star break.
If the trend continues, they'll have trouble winning games down the stretch.
Team President Theo Epstein knows it, yet he expressed confidence Tuesday in his starters getting things together between now and the end of the season.
No. 5 starter Dan Haren did not get a quality start Tuesday night, but he was serviceable in a 5-4 victory over the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. Rookie Kyle Schwarber's 2-run homer (No. 13) in the bottom of the seventh inning rallied the Cubs from a 4-3 deficit and lifted their record to 75-56.
Haren worked 5 innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 runs, including a first-inning home run to Reds hitting star Joey Votto.
"Definitely a step forward," said Haren, who got a no-decision. "I felt pretty good the last few innings of the last start, and it was nice being able to extend last start. I kept us right there today."
The quality-start breakdown has been an interesting one since the All-Star Game. To get a quality start, a pitcher must work at least 6 innings and give up no more than 3 earned runs.
Since the break, the Cubs have 18 quality starts and 26 non-quality starts. They're 16-2 in the quality-start games and 12-14 when they don't get one.
The real problem has been the top-heavy nature of the Cubs' rotation when it comes to quality starts. Of the 18 quality starts since the break, ace Jake Arrieta has 9, including Sunday's no-hitter at Los Angeles. Jon Lester has 6, but Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and Clayton Richard (now in the bullpen) have only 1 each.
"It's interesting," Epstein said. "Our pitching really carried us through May, June and July, when our offense and some of our younger hitters were really going through their expected slumps and trying to figure out and make adjustments. Our pitching carried us, kept us above .500, kept us beating good teams and got us in a position to have that explosive August.
"In August, our offense took over and carried us. The wind started blowing out, it warmed up, our hitters all got hot at the same time, and we dominated. Our offense carried our pitching a little bit. August hasn't been our best month on the hill."
August is over, and if the Cubs want to go deeply into October, they'll need their starting pitchers to go deep. If there's one thing working in the Cubs' favor, it's that a bullpen that has been taxed of late has reinforcements in September call-ups. The other way to overcome non-quality starts is to keep hitting.
"Now, as the calendar turns to September, we know it's going to get a little cooler," Epstein said. "Offense isn't as easy to come by. It's that natural progression. For us to get where we want to go, the pitching is going to have to take over again. We're in that snapshot moment of time right now where two starters are hot and three are kind of trying to figure (it) out.
"I think Hammel's really come around and righted himself. You can't take snapshots. That's part of progression. You're going to look up in 2-3 weeks and say, 'Wow, these two or three starters are now carrying us, and we didn't expect that. We didn't see that coming.'"
Either way, Epstein said the Cubs remain calm about their starting pitching.
"Our pitching is fundamentally important, especially this time of year," he said. "By no means are we panicking about it or concerned about it. It's part of the evolution of the staff and the regular season. We're going to pitch well again, and our pitching is going to win us a lot of important games, even the bottom part of the rotation."