Apple Watch has the hype, but will it have the sales?

The Apple Watch probably won't end up being the top-selling gadget that hit stores on Friday. Despite the enthusiasm around the big release of Apple's newest device, which is now available to try on in stores and for preorder online, the Samsung Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge are quietly racking up huge sales, according to analyst estimates.

Samsung Electronics' new smartphones, which went on sale on April 10, raked in an estimated 20 million preorders, according to a report in the Korea Times. Furthermore, the newspaper reports that Samsung is expected to ship 10 million units faster than any previous Galaxy phone. The Galaxy S5 set the previous record at 25 days, which was two days quicker than the immensely popular Galaxy S4. T-Mobile US, the country's fourth-largest carrier, says its early sales of the S6 are "nearly double" those of the S5. The latest models are receiving glowing reviews. (Our very own Sam Grobart calls them "fancy.")

Samsung expects this to be its highest-selling Galaxy S phone ever, and analysts mostly agree. IBK Securities predicts the South Korean consumer electronics giant could ship as many as 55 million S6 models. Estimates for Apple Watch sales are all over the map, but no major analyst has ventured a guess that high for 2015 sales. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is just under 14 million for the fiscal year ending in September. Apple may have sold a million watches over the weekend, according to analyst firms Cowen and Slice Intelligence.

Because both products hit stores on the same day, the Apple Watch and Galaxy S6 are competing head-to-head for people's mind share and disposable income. Most Americans won't spend their tax refunds on two expensive gadgets they don't need. For one measure of how the products are piquing people's interest, Google search data show a sizable lead for the Galaxy S6 at the time it matters most - right now, when people go to stores or browse online to make a buying decision.

Still, smartwatches and smartphones aren't apples to apples. The global market for smartwatches may reach 28.1 million units this year, with Apple accounting for more than half of those sales, according to research firm Strategy Analytics. Samsung's head start with its Gear watches hasn't done much to fend off the Apple Watch. Meanwhile, Apple's share of smartphones is about 15 percent, according to researcher IDC. But when you consider that the market was 1.3 billion units last year, 15 percent doesn't seem so bad. The iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus hit the coveted 10 million sales mark in a single weekend last year.

So while Samsung may win the battle for April gadget sales, its Galaxy S6 is unlikely to steal the smartphone throne from the iPhone 6. If Apple's monster holiday quarter weren't proof enough (74.5 million iPhones sold), take a look at the Google data.

To contact the author on this story: Mark Milian at mmilianbloomberg.net To contact the editor on this story: Marcus Chan at mchan239bloomberg.net