One last run for Thibs? Don't bet on it
Jeff Van Gundy won't be calling Game 1 of the Bulls-Bucks playoff series on Saturday.
So he's not likely to toss any gas on the smoldering relationship between coach Tom Thibodeau and Bulls management this weekend.
Ever since Van Gundy accused the Bulls of not supporting their coaches during an ESPN broadcast in January, there has been a widely repeated perception that this is it for Thibodeau. When the season ends, he'll move on.
Of course, frequently reported doesn't always mean accurate. So as the Bulls begin the postseason, it's worth examining Thibodeau's future in Chicago. The short answer can fit into two bullet points:
• It's been written here all season that if the Bulls have a bad ending, there could be a change in coaches. If the Bulls lose this series to the Bucks, then yes, there's a good chance Thibodeau and the Bulls will agree to part ways.
• A more likely scenario is the Bulls beat Milwaukee, play Cleveland tough in the second round and Thibodeau continues with the Bulls. Sure, the working relationship inside the Advocate Center has been rocky, but winning cures most problems.
"Tom doesn't want to leave the Bulls," a league source said. "He likes this team and he loves Chicago."
Thibodeau is still under contract. He could quit, but may not be able to join another team without the Bulls getting some sort of compensation.
If the Bulls wanted to get rid of Thibodeau, an obvious question follows: Who could do a better job?
The Bulls have gone 255-139 under Thibodeau. Among coaches who have worked five full seasons in the NBA, these are the only ones with a better winning percentage than Thibodeau's .647:
Phil Jackson, Billy Cunningham, Gregg Popovich, K.C. Jones and Red Auerbach.
So while it may not be a 100 percent lock that Thibodeau returns to the Bulls next season, not returning makes little sense. There has not been any evidence to show he has lost the support of his players.
If anything, this season supported Thibodeau's coaching style. He worked with the minutes restrictions given by the team's medical staff and players still got injured. With fewer opportunities for intense, full-participation practices, the Bulls weren't as good defensively as they have been, but still finished fourth in the league in opponents' field-goal percentage.
Some of what Van Gundy said in January was valid. The Bulls management team of John Paxson and Gar Forman hasn't always supported the team's head coaches, going back to the Scott Skiles era. They lost faith in Vinny Del Negro shortly after hiring him.
The rough working relationship is a two-way street, though. It appears to be a product of egos, short fuses and flawed people skills. Thibodeau's record speaks for itself. Likewise, Paxson and Forman have every right to feel good about the players they've given him.
The Bulls have made the playoffs 10 times in 12 seasons since Paxson replaced Jerry Krause. The team's 2011 draft performance could go down as one of the best in NBA history, turning the No. 28, 30 and 43 picks into Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic.
At the same time, Thibodeau has been able to work with management on some fronts. He agreed to a request to alter his offense before the 2013-14 season. Last summer, Thibodeau helped convince Paxson and Forman to pursue Carmelo Anthony in free agency.
Unless things go really bad during the Milwaukee series, expect Jerry Reinsdorf to once again ask the two sides work through their disagreements.
The Hoiberg factor
Another false perception that has been publicized is the Bulls viewing Iowa State's Fred Hoiberg as some sort of coach in waiting. Paxson certainly respects Hoiberg, a former Bulls player, but such a move makes no sense from Hoiberg's perspective.
Look at it this way: Hoiberg went to his college home of Ames, Iowa for a reason and it wasn't because he needed a job. He had been working in the Timberwolves front office and could have landed a number of roles in the NBA.
Hoiberg's move to Iowa State was about being happy, about raising his family in a desirable environment. He doesn't need a salary boost from the NBA or the stress that would go with the job.
If there's a coach in waiting, it's assistant Adrian Griffin, but he's not that eager to take over for Thibodeau. If anything, Griffin misses mentor and ex-assistant Ron Adams.
If the Bulls do need a new coach, they would probably pursue candidates such as Mark Jackson, who interviewed in 2010, or maybe Connecticut's Kevin Ollie, another former Bull.
For now, though, the chances of Thibodeau leaving the Bulls are roughly the same as the Bulls losing to the Bucks. Set your own odds.
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