Cubs fans shouldn't expect miracles just yet
Get your tickets for the Cubs-White Sox 2015 World Series.
Well, not yet.
It appears Chicago has won the winter meetings, which is a far cry from winning - or even getting to - the World Series or even the playoffs.
But both Chicago teams took major steps toward improvement this week in San Diego.
We'll look at the Cubs here.
On the final day of the 2014 season, first baseman Anthony Rizzo proclaimed the Cubs' goal for 2015 "to be the NL Central champs, to win a division."
Starting with last month's hiring of Joe Maddon as manager, the Cubs are taking bigger and bigger steps toward that goal.
Pitcher Jon Lester's signing of a six-year, $155 million contract screams "credibility," and it gives the Cubs a legitimate ace at the top of their rotation, allowing Jake Arrieta to slide comfortably into the No. 2 slot after he performed like an ace this past season. The signing of right-hander Jason Hammel and the trade for catcher Miguel Montero also help.
More on the entire rotation in a bit.
Opinion seems mixed on whether the Cubs can contend in the National League Central in 2015.
Writing for Fox Sports, Rob Neyer says the Cubs "will need a lotta luck to challenge the Cardinals and the Pirates."
Neyer notes the Cubs went 73-89 this year and were outscored by nearly 100 runs.
"In the short term, adding Lester and Montero makes the Cubs maybe two or three games better than they were last year. Or maybe I'm WAY OFF ... and it's four or five games. Now tack on another four or five to account for the mystical powers of Joe Maddon. That still leaves them well short of scaring the Cardinals.
"... the Cubs finished 12th in the National League in scoring last season, largely because of a .300 team on-base percentage. Is that going to improve much in 2015? I don't see how, with the personnel at hand, because Anthony Rizzo's the only excellent hitter on the 40-man roster."
Neyer stresses that his concerns are for the short term and that for the long term, the Cubs look good.
Over on FanGraphs, Dave Cameron takes a slightly different look.
"Yes, they were outscored by 93 runs, but their underlying performance suggests that with the sequencing noise stripped out, they were only outplayed by about 20 runs. The 2014 Cubs, even trading their best pitchers at midseason, played something like a .500 team, and if you just reconstructed the exact same individual performances, you should expect something closer to 80 wins than 70 wins. That's what they're adding onto, not their 73-89 record.
"As currently built, we have the Cubs as roughly an 84-win team, five wins better than their BaseRuns mark from last year. Is that really an unreasonably optimistic forecast, given that they won't be trading Lester and Hammel away at midseason this time around, and the kids are probably more ready for prime time than they were a year ago?"
Sounds reasonable to me.
Before the Cubs head to spring training in February, team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer may yet add a veteran bat or two to help with that OBP.
As far as the rotation goes, the Cubs look like this: Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and Travis Wood. Until further notice, the disappointing Edwin Jackson is still on the roster, with two seasons to go on the four-year, $52 million contract he signed a couple winters back.
The Cubs re-upped with Tsuyoshi Wada, who was serviceable in the second half. Dan Straily came over from Oakland in the trade that sent now-White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija and Hammel to Oakland last July. Jacob Turner came from the Marlins in an August trade, and youngsters Dallas Beeler and Eric Jokisch acquitted themselves well in 2014 look-sees.
So, no, a Cubs-White Sox World Series is probably out of the question for 2015, but I do see the Cubs pushing toward contention in the coming year.
bmiles@dailyherald.com