Fantasy Football: Time to fine-tune your roster for playoff run

After hours and hours preparing for your draft ... after picking your team ... after stressing over lineups ... after all those trades ... after all of those free-agent pickups ... we've finally arrived ...

At playoff week.

For many of you, it all boils down to this.

Win or go home. Win for that division title and / or No. 1 seed.

Win. Or else.

It doesn't get any better than this and what a way to start, with a three-game extravaganza on Thanksgiving Day.

The best advice I can give you is simply not overthink your lineup decisions and to pay attention to recent trends. Those include paying attention to some up-and-coming players - Minnesota's Charles Johnson and Miami's Jarvis Landry are two good examples - who deserve consideration as fantasy starters this week.

Astute owners will also take a look at free-agent defenses and see which ones have the easiest upcoming schedules. There's nothing worse than not paying attention when you own the Eagles (as I do) and not realize that they have Dallas, Seattle and Dallas again the next three weeks.

So what did I do? I picked up the sizzling Rams, who host Oakland this week, then are at Washington and host Arizona and the Giants in Weeks 15 and 16.

Other potential free-agent defenses to consider:

• Minnesota (available in two-thirds of cbssportsline.com leagues) hosts Carolina and the Jets the next two weeks.

• Indy (25 percent available) hosts Washington, is at Cleveland, then hosts Houston.

• Baltimore (25 percent available) hosts San Diego, is at Miami, hosts Minnesota then is at Jacksonville.

So, good luck this week ... and even if you are out of playoff contention, do your league-mates a favor and play spoiler.

Good bets

• Lions QB Matthew Stafford vs. the Bears. Disgruntled Stafford owners are about to get three QB1-worthy performances in the next four weeks as the Lions play the Bears twice and Tampa Bay next week.

• Cowboys QB Tony Romo vs. Philadelphia. Just like Stafford, Romo is about to go on a serious tear as Dallas has the Bears, the Eagles again in Week 15 and the Colts in Week 16.

• Giants QB Eli Manning at Jacksonville. First, I must apologize to the emailer who I told to sit Manning last week. Bad call. So to make amends, let me just say that he's a great start this week against a Jaguars team that's allowed the most points in the NFL.

• Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill and WR Jarvis Landry at N.Y. Jets. Don't look now, but Tannehill is a top-10 QB since Week 4 with 17 TDs over that nine-game stretch. And Landry, a rookie out of LSU, is suddenly Tannehill's favorite receiver as he has 24 catches on 32 targets with 4 TDs the last four weeks.

• Rams RB Tre Mason vs. Oakland. I couldn't believe Mason, who has 45 carries for 175 yards the last two weeks, was sitting on the waiver wire in one of my leagues. He's going to destroy the Raiders.

• Cardinals RB Andre Ellington at Atlanta. After a rough outing in Seattle, Ellington will bounce back against a Falcons D that just allowed a combined 150 rushing yards and 2 TDs to Cleveland's Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West.

• Jaguars RB Denard Robinson vs. N.Y. Giants. Don't let one bad week spook you - Robinson's a near lock for double-digit points.

• Texans RB Alfred Blue vs. Tennessee. This comes with the obvious caveat that Arian Foster misses a third straight week with his groin injury.

• Vikings WR Charles Johnson vs. Carolina. Forget Greg Jennings. This second-year burner out of Grand Valley State is suddenly Teddy Bridgewater's favorite wideout. He's a great flex play against a Panthers team that has allowed 20 passing TDs.

• Browns WR Andrew Hawkins at Buffalo. The Bills have been solid against the pass, but Hawkins will continue to post decent numbers with defenses zoned in on what Josh Gordon is doing.

•Lions defense vs. the Bears. Turnovers and sacks will be coming in waves against Marc Trestman's stuck-in-the-mud offense.

• Dolphins defense at the Jets. Miami might be the No. 1 fantasy unit this week.

Bad bets

• Bears QB Jay Cutler at Detroit. After the first six weeks, Cutler was the fifth-ranked fantasy QB with 14 TDs and a pair of 300-yard games. Over the last six weeks (five games), Cutler ranks 14th in fantasy points per game with 9 TDs and 10 turnovers. Playing him in the Lions den on Turkey Day is one sure-fire way to cause instant indigestion.

• Chargers QB Philip Rivers and RB Ryan Mathews at Baltimore. Yes, the Ravens just allowed Drew Brees to throw for 420 yards and 3 TDs, but Rivers (2 TDs, 5 turnovers last three) has been too awful of late to rely upon.

• Niners RB Frank Gore vs. Seattle. Playing with knee and hip issues, Gore should be benched until he gets a better matchup and is healthier.

• Bucs WR Vincent Jackson vs. Cincinnati. He hasn't scored since Week 4, so don't let last week's 5-catch, 117-yard day against the Bears blind you into starting Jackson.

• Texans WRs Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins vs. Tennessee. I trust Hopkins more than Johnson in this spot, but Houston's a mess right now, so getting more than 7-8 points out of either of these two is unlikely.

• Follow John on Twitter at @johndietzdh.