Fantasy Football: Surprises, duds at halfway mark

Halfway home.

Loyal readers of this space know what that means - it's time to show a little love to players who have delighted us, and time to dump on the maddening underachievers who are wrecking our seasons.

So let's get this party started.

Surprise QB

This is an easy choice in my mind. Most fantasy football prognosticators and NFL analysts believed Andrew Luck was ready to take the next step in his young, promising career. But I'm not sure anybody saw this coming.

Luck, who had 28 total TDs as a rookie and 27 last season, already has 24 in 2014. He's the No. 1 fantasy QB in the land - and by a wide margin over Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. With seven 300-yard games already, Luck's on pace for a whopping 5,462 passing yards.

Projection: No way he's slowing down. My guess is he finishes with 5,250 passing yards and 45 total scores.

Dud QB

Drew Brees hasn't been what we expected. And neither has Matthew Stafford or Nick Foles. But Cam Newton owners have been downright snookered by the Panthers QB. No longer using his legs, Newton is barely a top-20 QB with just 9 TDs and 7 turnovers.

Projection: Newton's Week 6 performance (107 rushing yards vs. Cincinnati) opened some eyes, but he promptly came back to earth the last two weeks. The Panthers play a lot of soft defenses down the stretch, so don't be surprised if Newton adds 14-15 TDs to his total and picks up nearly 300 more yards on the ground.

Surprise RB

After taking Brees and Jimmy Graham with my first two picks, one name was staring at me as I prepared to make my Round 3 selection: Arian Foster. This guy burned me bad in 2013. But how could I not take a chance on Foster's immense talent at that point?

All I can say is thank God I took the plunge. With 932 yards from scrimmage and 9 TDs, Foster is performing like a top-3 overall pick. He's running hard, with authority and is the centerpiece to Houston's offense. My only plea: Just stay healthy!

Projection: Watch for 1,650 rushing yards and 18-19 TDs by season's end.

Dud RB

On a team that averages 29 points a game, you'd think the bell cow tailback would be at least in the top 10 in fantasy points. But that's just not the case with the Eagles' LeSean McCoy, who went first or second in many fantasy drafts. Shady does have 505 rushing yards in seven games, but it's the 19 catches for 88 yards and 1 TD that's killing his season.

Projection: Things are trending up as McCoy has averaged 104.3 rushing yards per game over Philly's last three games. Watch for 1,000-1,100 additional yards from scrimmage and 6-7 TDs down the stretch.

Surprise WR

Too old. Too small. New team. No way is Steve Smith going to have much of a season, right? Um, wrong. Smith has found new life in Baltimore with Joe Flacco as his quarterback and is on pace for his best statistical season since 2005. True, much of his production came in Week 4 against his former team, but Smith has posted acceptable fantasy numbers in six of the Ravens' eight games.

Projection: Smith has cooled off a bit of late. I'm guessing he'll add 450-500 receiving yards and 3-4 TDs to his totals.

Dud WR

Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green and Calvin Johnson are all serious candidates here, but you can go ahead and tell Brandon Marshall that his performance thus far has been completely "unacceptable." Oh, and feel free to tell him that 17 times or so. Marshall's on pace for a sickly 768 yards, and he has a mere 1 TD since Week 2.

Projection: Things can't go on like this all season, can they? Probably not, but I don't see a huge correction coming. Marshall will finish with 925-950 receiving yards, and he'll score 4-5 more times.

Good bets

• Cardinals QB Carson Palmer at Dallas. This is somewhat of a risky call, but I like Arizona to control this game with Tony Romo either out or limited. Watch for Palmer to extend his streak of 2-TD games to five.

• Eagles QB Nick Foles at Houston. I'm not expecting miracles here but do expect Foles to outpoint both QBs I have in the bad bets.

• Jaguars RB Denard Robinson at Cincinnati. OK, he's sucked me in. How can you not believe in a guy who's averaged 5.88 yards per carry the last two games?

• Niners RB Frank Gore vs. St. Louis. Twenty-five carries for 58 yards. That was Gore's sickly production in the two games before San Fran's bye week. Against the Rams, though, he'll find pay dirt and score 15-plus fantasy points.

• Browns WR Andrew Hawkins vs. Tampa Bay. Only the Bears and Jets have allowed more passing TDs than Lovie Smith's Bucs.

• Colts WR Reggie Wayne at New York Giants. Reports say that - barring a setback - Wayne is expected to return from an elbow injury. He should give you solid WR3 numbers against a wrecked Giants secondary. Wayne owners who will wait until Monday should carry Donta Moncrief on the roster as insurance.

• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. N.Y. Jets. Had Kelce not been dragged down on the 1-yard line last week, he would have scored for the fourth time in five weeks.

Bad bets

• Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Baltimore. Don't go chasing the points if you're a Big Ben owner.

• Giants QB Eli Manning and WR Rueben Randle vs. Indy. That performance by Roethlisberger vs. the Colts last week was a total aberration.

• Ravens RB Justin Forsett at Pittsburgh. Forsett will be lucky to score more than 7 fantasy points this week.

• Raiders WR James Jones at Seattle. Don't even think about playing a Raider against the mad-as-heck Seahawks.

• Cowboys WR Terrance Williams vs. Arizona. Only twice in eight games has Williams managed more than 4 receptions.

• Skins TE Jordan Reed at Minnesota. The Vikings are good at shutting down teams' tight ends.

jdietz@dailyherald.com