6 things to watch in NBA Finals
The 2014 NBA Finals could bring back fond flashbacks for Chicago Bulls fans.
For the first time since Bulls-Jazz in 1997 and '98, the same teams will face off in consecutive years. Miami and San Antonio will launch their rematch on Thursday in Texas.
And much like in '98, the teams are virtually identical. The Bulls did swap Bison Dele for Scott Burrell and Dickey Simpkins replaced Jason Caffey, but it was still Michael Jordan doing most of the damage against John Stockton and Karl Malone.
Miami and San Antonio haven't changed much since 2013. The Heat lost Mike Miller, their best 3-point shooter in last year's Finals. Greg Oden is the forgotten big man trying to get an easy ring while riding the Miami bench, following in the footsteps of Eddy Curry two years ago.
The Spurs' only significant change is ex-Bulls guard Marco Belinelli replacing Gary Neal on the roster. Belinelli played well in the regular season, but is averaging just 5.7 points in a reduced role during the playoffs.
So, the stage is set. San Antonio is out to avenge last year's seven-game loss and establish a unique dynasty. Tim Duncan and coach Gregg Popovich are chasing their fifth NBA title in a span of 15 years, which would be unprecedented in terms of length.
Miami, meanwhile, is trying to make it three in a row for LeBron James and the Power Trio. It's not Bulls-Jazz, but still an intriguing matchup. Here are 6 things to watch:
The coast:
With injuries to Derrick Rose and Brook Lopez, the collapse of the Knicks and the implosion of the Pacers, there's no denying Miami had a clear path to the Finals. Probably the easiest road of the last four seasons.
Will this result in the Heat being rested and ready to roll against the Spurs? Or did the weak competition in the East mask some of Miami's problems?
When at full strength, San Antonio was dominant this season. The Spurs had a more difficult path through the playoffs and should be well-prepared for the Finals — unless their older guys are getting tired.
The injuries:
The big question as the Finals begin is the health of Spurs guard Tony Parker. He sat out the second half of Game 6 vs. Oklahoma City with an ankle injury. He's expected to be fine for Game 1, but Parker also injured his hamstring in the second round.
Most Miami injury news focuses on Dwyane Wade's knees. But after coasting through the regular season sitting out 28 games, Wade is performing well in the playoffs (18.7 points).
The long range:
People love to harp on James' performance in the clutch. The difference-makers for Miami, though, are always the 3-point shooters.
Shane Battier couldn't miss when the Heat beat OKC in the '12 Finals. Last year against the Spurs, Miller shot 61 percent from 3-point range and Ray Allen 55 percent, including the series-saving shot at the end of Game 6.
As a team, Miami shot 43 percent from 3-point land in last year's Finals. So far in the playoffs, the Heat is at .395 from long range. The best shooters have been Battier (who's planning to retire), James Jones and Norris Cole.
Last year, San Antonio's Danny Green had an epic Finals, hitting 27 of 49 shots from 3-point range. That probably won't happen again, but Green is shooting 48 percent from long range in the playoffs.
The inside game:
Through four straight trips to the Finals, Miami is still weak on the front line. Duncan, 38, averaged 18.9 points and 12.1 rebounds last year against the Heat, so there's no reason to think he won't outplay Chris Bosh again.
Bosh is shooting more 3-pointers these days and averaging 15.2 points in the playoffs, better than he's done the last two years.
The changes:
San Antonio has homecourt advantage this time around and the NBA has gone back to the 2-2-1-1-1 format after nearly 30 years of 2-3-2.
The team without home court seemed to have an edge with the three-game homestand in the middle of the series, so the shift in format could benefit the Spurs.
The bottom line:
San Antonio came within a missed free throw of winning last year's title and has seemed motivated all season to rewrite the ending for Duncan. The Spurs' other veteran, Manu Ginóbili, 36, is playing better than he was a year ago. With a healthy Parker, a rising star in Kawhi Leonard and a deep pool of confident supporting players, the Spurs should finish the job this time.
Miami has been great at making playoff adjustments, while the James-Wade pairing is still one of the NBA's all-time best. But the Heat needs to turn it up several notches after coasting through the weak East to have any chance.
Prediction: San Antonio in 6 games.
• Follow Mike on Twitter@McGrawDHBulls, and contact him by email at mmcgraw@dailyherald.com.