Cubs on pace for historic losing season
The first traditional milepost of the baseball season is Memorial Day, and the Cubs haven't even waited that long to bury themselves.
Entering Thursday's off-day, the Cubs found themselves with a 15-29 record and 10 games out of first place in the National League Central.
It seems too early to be projecting a record over 162 games, but there are enough troubling signs that we might as well point out this team is on pace for a record of 55-107.
The 1962 and 1966 clubs had records of 59-103. Of more recent vintage, the 2006 Cubs finished 66-96, and the 2000 team was 65-97.
If you can keep in mind that the Cubs are “rebuilding” (we should take the quotation marks off because the Cubs don't use the dreaded “R” word), maybe some of the losing won't be as hard to take. That and the possibility of having the first pick in next year's draft with a front office that knows how to draft should have Cubs fans feeling at least not horrible about the immediate goings-on.
On the other hand, the Cubs management team of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer talked of “parallel tracks,” meaning the Cubs could compete this year while still building for long-term sustained success.
With a nine-game losing streak ongoing, it's safe to say the train on this parallel track has derailed.
Certainly Epstein and Hoyer want to avoid the embarrassment of a 100-plus-loss season, but that might not be possible for several reasons:
Ÿ The schedule. The Cubs have just begun a stretch of 16 of 19 games on the road. After going to Pittsburgh this weekend, the Cubs stop home briefly to play the equally woebegone San Diego Padres.
But after that, look out. The Cubs go to San Francisco for four, Milwaukee for three and Minnesota for three. Granted, the Brewers have fallen on tough times and the Twins are as bad as the Cubs, but these are still road games.
The Cubs “get” to come home to interleague matchups with Detroit and Boston before taking the el to the South Side to play the White Sox, and we know what happened the last time they met.
Ÿ The offense. The Cubs are 14th in the National League in runs scored. They went into the 60th straight inning of trailing until Reed Johnson's first-inning homer gave them a short-lived lead Wednesday.
Third baseman Ian Stewart, for whom the Cubs gave up young players, sat out the last two games because the Astros had left-handed pitchers going. Say what you will about Aramis Ramirez, but the former Cubs third baseman was not a platoon player. The Stewart trade is not looking good right now.
The Cubs also are 13th in home runs and on-base percentage, 12th in slugging percentage and 14th in walks taken, something that must make Epstein cringe.
Ÿ The bullpen. As we've pointed out, manager Dale Sveum trusts only three relievers: James Russell, Shawn Camp and Rafael Dolis. They can't be perfect every time — and Dolis was rusty Wednesday in a rough outing — and Sveum risks burning them out.
If erstwhile closer Carlos Marmol can come back from his injury rehab, it will take some of the load off Russell, Camp and Dolis.
Check your differential:
The Cubs have the worst run differential in the National League, at minus-46. They've scored 155 runs while giving up 201. The Pirates, whom the Cubs play this weekend, are minus-34, but their ERA is third in the NL, at 3.33.
By contrast, the St. Louis Cardinals lead the NL in run differential at plus-65. The Texas Rangers are tops in the American League at a whopping plus-79. The Twins are last in the AL at minus-69.
Run differential gives you a good idea of what your record is “supposed to be.” The “expected,” or so-called Pythagorean record, of the Cubs is 16-28, just 1 game better than the actual, which means that unless things change, they're going to make a run at 100 losses.
Ex-Cubs watch:
Carlos Pena, who played first base for the Cubs last year and is now back with Tampa Bay, found himself batting leadoff for the Rays this week. He hit a 3-run homer to snap an 0-for-19 slump.
“I think it's kind of cool,” Pena told the St. Petersburg Times. “I think it's a shift of mentality, and you can't really quantify how much difference it makes.”
“It's just about a mindset,'' manager Joe Maddon said. “Just about what you're thinking, and just changing that a little it.”
Elsewhere, the Colorado Rockies have called up ex-Cubs infielder DJ LeMahieu to fill a utility role while the Rockies battle injuries. LeMahieu and outfielder Tyler Colvin went to Colorado for Ian Stewart and minor-league pitcher Casey Weathers.
Minor-league watch:
First-base phenom Anthony Rizzo hit his 16th homer, tops in the Pacific Coast League, Wednesday in Class AAA Iowa's 8-3 loss to Tacoma. Entering Thursday, Rizzo had a line of .355/.420/.710 for an OPS of 1.130. It would be fun to see him, even briefly, next month in games at Minnesota and/or at the Cell with the Cubs being able to use an extra hitter in American League parks.
Cubs scouting report
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park
TV: Comcast SportsNet Plus Friday; FOX Saturday; WGN Sunday
Radio: WGN 720-AM
Pitching matchups: The Cubs' Ryan Dempster (0-2) vs. A.J. Burnett (2-2) Friday at 6:05 p.m.; Paul Maholm (4-3) vs. Kevin Correia (1-5) Saturday at 6:15 p.m.; Matt Garza (2-2) vs. Erik Bedard (2-5) Sunday at 12:35 p.m.
At a glance: Runs figure to be hard to come by with these two offensively challenged teams. The Cubs were 8-8 against the Pirates last year and 5-2 at PNC. Center fielder Andrew McCutchen leads the Pirates in all the key categories with a line of .338/.391/.543 with 7 homers. But he's part of an overall offense that's last or next to it in those same categories. Dempster is 8-12 with a 5.57 ERA lifetime against the Pirates while Maholm goes back to the park where he pitched from 2005 until last season.
Next: San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field, Monday-Wednesday
— Bruce Miles