Konerko's pace puts him on plaque track

The first time I can remember hearing someone mention Paul Konerko as a Hall of Fame candidate was probably when Ozzie Guillen brought it up in Cleveland during the first week of the 2008 season.

Given Guillen's penchant for hyperbole, it lends one to tune out completely or at least filter intensely, and three years ago there wasn't much to consider.

The next time I thought about it was late last season, as Konerko began to climb up the list of all-time leaders in several key categories.

But he's been easy to dismiss because of the relatively late surge in his career and the injury worries.

However, it's time to think about what Guillen said then and what it means now.

When I asked Konerko about it last summer, he gave me classic Konerko, concerned only about staying healthy and winning games and wanting nothing to do with a post-career conversation.

Konerko loves the game too much to think about when the end might arrive, so it's not something he wanted to ponder.

And then he went to the cage to take another bazillion swings.

“He's a very smart man,” says hitting coach Greg Walker. “Sometimes, you almost feel like he's too smart. He's so analytical and he's got so many mechanical thoughts in his mind.

“Hitting in the majors is not an easy thing to do, and I don't know many guys who can think as much as he does and have such tremendous success.”

It's working. For the last six years Konerko has averaged 34 homers, 97 RBI, 281 total bases and a .281 batting average.

But the 35-year-old Konerko seems to be getting better with age. After hitting .312 with 39 homers, 111 RBI and 320 total bases a year ago, Konerko is hitting .321 this season and is on pace to hit 39 homers with 125 RBI and 331 total bases.

He's currently second in the American League in RBI and fourth in homers and batting average, and he has a .972 OPS the last two years, compared to .858 for his career. If Konerko continues at his current pace, he'll finish this season with 404 career homers, 1,281 RBI and 3,642 total bases.

While his numbers are improving, it's difficult to imagine him continuing at this rate the next few years, so let's say he slows to 25 homers, 85 RBI and 270 total bases the next two seasons, and then 15, 65 and 200 the two years after that.

That would put a 39-year-old Konerko at 484 homers, 1,581 RBI and 4,582 total bases.

Is that realistic considering his age and tendency to pile up nagging injuries? Perhaps not, so let's adjust down a bit to 475 homers, 1,500 RBI and 4,500 total bases.

Of the players in MLB history with 475 homers and 4,500 total bases, every one eligible for election is in the Hall of Fame except for Rafael Palmeiro, who obviously had the numbers but was busted for steroids.

“(Konerko) is a home run hitter because he did it clean,” Guillen said Friday night. “Konerko is a great RBI man. He's a great hitter.”

In MLB history, only 21 players have reached 475 homers, 1,500 RBI and 4,500 total bases.

In order of most home runs, they are Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Junior Griffey, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Frank Robinson, Palmeiro, Reggie Jackson, Manny Ramirez, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, Frank Thomas, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Mel Ott, Gary Sheffield, Eddie Murray, Lou Gehrig and Stan Musial.

Every one of those players is in the Hall, will be in the Hall, or will be denied the Hall because of performance-enhancing drugs.

That's Hall of Fame guaranteed for a man never associated with PEDs, if — and it's a big “if” — Konerko can stay healthy and keep producing as he works through his late 30s.

If he can do it, he'll begin waking up a national media that has largely ignored a man who requires no attention and requests the limelight even less.

He's never been a self-promoter and would much rather speak after a game about a teammate, but with every day this season that he produces — as he approaches 400 homers — he's going to force media from around the country to start wondering about his place in history.

And yet he's still a player would just as soon take a shot to right and allow a teammate to take a base.

“He's not a guy that stops people on the streets because he's a giant physical guy,” Guillen said last year. “He's just a really good hitter. He's been a good hitter for a long time. I don't think everybody around baseball knows that.”

Konerko credits finding Walker in 2003 with turning around his career, with insisting he understand his strengths, knowing he must have enough success on breaking pitches to get the fastballs he desires.

Konerko also said he rarely thinks home run at the plate.

“I've always been someone who tried to do what was right for the situation,” Konerko said. “Usually, that means being a good hitter first and not necessarily thinking about power first.”

But in the process, Konerko has put up some big numbers, and if his health holds up the Hall of Fame is a real possibility.

“It sounds like an awful cliché, but all I think about is the next pitch,” Konerko said recently. “All the rest of it is out of your control, so that's all I really think about.”

Konerko will happily leave the rest of it for the rest of us.

brozner@dailyherald.com

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