One man's opinion on how things will go in NCAA tourney

In the good old days, the NCAA Tournament prediction process was simple.

Man (or woman) vs. bracket. See sheet, scribble on sheet. Pay money, lose money.

These days if you want to win your pool it almost pays to know more about math than basketball.

Andrew Clark wrote a book entitled “Bracketeering: A Layman's Guide to Picking the Madness in March.”

Nate Silver, the University of Chicago alum whose fivethirtyeight.com website correctly gauged the 2008 elections, developed a method for solving the brackets.

Ken Pomeroy, whose kenpom.com site tracks college hoops all year long, calculated a “log5” equation that also offers percentages on each of the 68 schools' chances to cut down the nets April 4 in Houston.

(By the way, Silver says Illinois boasts a 0.7 percent probability to win its first NCAA title, while Pomeroy says the Illini have more like a 0.4 percent chance).

But when it comes down to filling out your brackets — keep in mind they're due by 5:30 p.m. today if your pool counts the “First Four” — who are you going to trust?

Guys with spreadsheets and lightning-fast computers and big brains and basketball sensibilities?

Or this guy with modest Excel skills and a basic laptop and a pea-sized brain … who happened to see 15 of the 68 teams in person?

Good point. I'd choose the smarter fellas, too.

But what if I filled out a bracket while borrowing liberally from Silver and Pomeroy and using what I learned with my own eyes?

Yeah, it's too good to be true. Yet here we are. Let's pinch ourselves, yes?

East the beast

Silver's projections suggest the East region owns a 29.3 percent chance to provide our nation's champion.

Most of that probability is caught up in top-ranked Ohio State, which is considered the overall best bet at 20.9 percent.

I say the Buckeyes ace the Cleveland-Newark road to Houston because they're the most balanced squad in the field.

Moreover, Pomeroy's numbers declare Ohio State operated the nation's most efficient offense this season — and Pomeroy's No. 1 team in Adjusted Offense has claimed each of the last three NCAA titles.

If you're looking for upsets, this is the wrong region to scour. I decided 11th-seeded Marquette will roll all the way to the Sweet Sixteen, even though opening foe Xavier has been to the Sweet Sixteen each of the last three years.

West is west

Here's a tip for all you bracketeers out there: The NCAA champ hasn't come out the West since 2004.

As for defending champion Duke, none of its four titles came after fighting through the West region. It probably means nothing, but still.

I like San Diego State to defeat top-seeded Duke in the regional final. Part of it is the allure of picking someone new — San Diego State has never won a Tournament game — and part of it is Steve Fisher's balanced and talented squad.

I wish the Aztecs shot free throws at more than a 69.8 percent clip, but you can't have everything.

Southeast the least

Nate Silver's formula says this region's teams own a mere 16.5 percent chance to win the whole thing.

It probably doesn't help that top-seeded Pittsburgh, third-seeded BYU and fourth-seeded Wisconsin enter at low ebbs.

Utah State (No. 12) and Belmont (No. 13) received no credit for 30-win seasons, but I like Utah State to win and Belmont to take Wisconsin to the wire before succumbing.

It's a great matchup as Belmont forces 19 turnovers per game and Wisconsin will set the NCAA record for fewest turnovers per game (7.4).

I'm going with Pittsburgh to win this regional, but I don't feel good about it.

Fly using Southwest

Most pool entries will have Ohio State or Kansas winning it all, so you have to make your mark in the early rounds.

This is a great place to do it.

Go with 12th-seeded Richmond over Vanderbilt (their top scorer has a foot injury) and 13th-seeded Morehead State over Louisville (the Cardinals don't do well on the defensive glass, and Morehead State boasts the nation's best rebounder in Kenneth Faried).

No problem in Houston

I like Kansas to go the distance. The Jayhawks are bigger and deeper than Notre Dame and Purdue, their closest competition in the Southwest regional.

Those same characteristics give Kansas the edge over Ohio State in the NCAA title game. Jared Sullinger can't fight the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson by himself.