'King' should rule come Oscar night
Nominees have earned the nods.
Bookies have laid down the odds.
Designers have adorned celebrity bods.
And so we gather once more to ponder the winners of the annual ocular orgy known as the Academy Awards.
What and who will win?
We'll know for sure when the 83rd annual Academy Awards are broadcast live from the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood on ABC starting at 7 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 27.
Meanwhile, here are my predictions based on nothing but my gut instincts and many years of experience racking up a dismal record for accuracy.
Let's all hope the Oscars don't last 127 hours.
Best Picture
Up until a few weeks ago, I was convinced that “The Social Network” had become an unstoppable bulldozer that would claim its ultimate prize of Best Picture.
“The Social Network” has won virtually every conceivable critics' group prize as best picture. It won the Golden Globe. It won over the mysterious National Board of Review.
Then, during and after the holidays, I saw “The Social Network” four times. I saw “The King's Speech” eight times. After that, I didn't really want to see “Social Network” again. But I didn't mind watching “The King's Speech” one more time.
What was that all about?
Why had my interest in “King's Speech” eclipsed my interest in “The Social Network,” despite the fact I had ranked “Social Network” higher on my 2010 top-10 list than “King's Speech”?
Three reasons compel me now to predict that “King's Speech” will win over “Social Network.”
1. Tradition. “The King's Speech” is a much more conservative, traditional motion picture of the ilk preferred by the Academy voters for the big enchilada.
The way I figure it, the Academy choice boils down to a cutting-edge, cool director's movie, “The Social Network,” or the old-fashioned, spiritually uplifting craftsmanship of “The King's Speech.” They'll go for the latter.
2. Likability. The main characters in “The Social Network” are conniving, back-stabbing, money-grubbing jerks who don't really like women and don't understand the value of personal honor and friendship.
Meanwhile, the main characters in “The King's Speech” display a heartwarming sense of nobility, and it has nothing to do with being royal, either.
3. The Brit factor. Academy voters slurp up anything British. They worship the British.
They love Emma Thompson. They love Kate Winslet. They love Judi Dench. They loved “Chariots of Fire” over “Reds.” They loved “Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan.”
Academy voters would give an Oscar to a billiard ball if someone put English on it.
Director
A few weeks ago, I thought “Social Network” director David Fincher had the Oscar in the proverbial bag.
Then the Directors Guild of America gave its biggest honor to Tom Hooper, who guided “The King's Speech” from its humble start as an unproduced stage play to a magnificent motion picture.
Because the DGA winner usually goes on to win the Oscar, and because Academy voters appear to be shifting their loyalties, I'm putting my money on Hooper.
Leading Actor
When Colin Firth appears on the screen as Prince Albert (later to be King George VI), he instantly draws us into his world, his pain and his despair as a stuttering royal leader cursed/blessed to rally the United Kingdom into war against the Nazis in “The King's Speech.”
Armed with a supremely honed script and supported with excellent direction by Oscar nominee Tom Hooper, Firth captures our hearts, allows us to laugh at his unintended honesty and emotionally bonds with us so that we share his suffering, his embarrassment and his victory as if they were our own.
Besides, women love Colin Firth.
They really love Colin Firth.
(Remember him as Mr. Darcy? If you're a female who saw “Pride and Prejudice” in 1995, the answer is yes, you do.)
The majority of Academy voters are male, but that won't stop Firth from deservedly walking off with the best actor statue.
Leading Actress
Nothing says “Oscar” like a perfectionist ballerina slowly pirouetting into madness while experiencing a psychosexual breakdown with her bisexual understudy.
Natalie Portman has never been thought of as a great actress, but in Darren Aronofsky's “Black Swan,” she rises to the occasion of a great role with a wild character arc tailor-made for Oscar gold.
Portman's character begins emotionally as a preteen innocent blindly following the whims of her embittered, controlling ex-ballerina mother. Then she segues into a blossoming young woman struggling to break the bonds that tie her down.
Finally, she evolves into a sexual predator, flushed with power she never knew she possessed, and willing to use it in her quest to achieve a sick and twisted idea of perfection.
Portman's only competition would be the popular Annette Bening as the lesbian parent in “The Kids are All Right,” even though the better performance — and more challenging role — in that film was handled by her un-nominated co-star Julianne Moore.
Supporting actor
Hey, where's Christian Bale, the guy who played the hunky Bruce Wayne in the last two Batman movies?
Bale's shocking transformation into the broken-down crack-addict, ex-boxer brother in “The Fighter” isn't just physical with his emaciated frame, receding hairline and bad teeth. (He dropped even more weight to play the title character in “The Machinist.”)
Look at the punch-drunk way he walks. Notice his fidgety-idgety inability to sit still. Hear the slurred speech of a guy who's taken a few too many to the head.
During one scene when his mom goes off on a lecture about manners, what does Bale do? Quietly closes his eyes and dozes off on the right side of the frame.
Audacious! Ridiculous!
However, Geoffrey Rush can't be counted out if Oscar voters go for a “King's Speech” sweep. It could happen.
Supporting actress
To argue that Melissa Leo's performance as the control-freak mom in “The Fighter” was superior to Amy Adams' blue-collar girlfriend (from the same movie) or Hailee Steinfeld's teen western heroine (actually a lead role) in “True Grit” would be a waste of words.
This category boasts some true powerhouse performances, but Leo will win the statuette handily, not just because she's utterly watchable in “The Fighter,” but because she has consistently turned in excellent work for many years in a vast variety of roles that attest to her range and versatility.
Remember her as the corrupt cop from last year's “Conviction”? Or the destitute single mom driven to transporting illegal aliens into the U.S. to earn money in “Frozen River”? Probably not, because Leo sinks so deeply into a role, we retain a fuzzy memory of who the actress actually is.
This year, Leo is the fighter, and she'll score a knockout.
Animated feature
It's “Toy Story 3,” silly.
Pixar's second sequel to a 15-year-old movie looks like a kids' film, but it's all about the unstoppable passage of time, recognizing mortality, facing death and moving on in a world that never slows down for anyone, not even Andy's toys as they get passed to the next generation of children.
Plus, the incinerator scene in “Toy Story 3” is the most powerful and galvanizing moment in animated film history since the hunter's gun shot that killed Bambi's mother in 1942.
How many times do I have to explain this?
Other predictions
Cinematography: “Inception” (Wally Pfister)
Original screenplay: #8220;The King's Speech#8221; (David Seidler)
Adapted screenplay: #8220;The Social Network#8221; (Aaron Sorkin)
Score: #8220;The Social Network#8221; (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
Song: #8220;We Belong Together#8221; (#8220;Toy Story 3#8221;)
Makeup: #8220;The Way Back#8221;
Costume design: #8220;Alice in Wonderland#8221; (Colleen Atwood)
Art direction: #8220;The King's Speech#8221;
Documentary: #8220;Exit Through the Gift Shop#8221; (Note: Producers have reportedly nixed reclusive artist and filmmaker Banksy from attending the show in disguise, despite that he has never allowed his face to be publicly photographed.)
Live action short: #8220;The Confession#8221;
Animated short: #8220;Day and Night#8221;
Foreign language: #8220;Biutiful#8221;
Sound Editing: #8220;Inception#8221;
Sound Mixing: #8220;True Grit#8221;
Visual Effects: #8220;Inception#8221;
<b>“The 83rd Annual Academy Awards”</b>
• Airs at 7 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 27, on ABC
• Red carpet fashion coverage begins at 5 p.m. on both E! and the TV Guide Network and at 6 p.m. on ABC
• See <a href="http://www.oscar.go.com" target="_blank">oscar.go.com</a>