Maybe Kane Co. isn't turning Democratic

Bill Foster's ascension to the 14th Congressional District in 2008 was viewed as a major coup for Democrats. Dennis Hastert, a local Republican icon, had long lorded over the district with no Democratic challenger ever viewed as a true threat to take over the seat. When Foster won, twice, many saw it as a sign of a coming blue tide in the district.

Then Republican Randy Hultgren came along.

If you listen to Democrats who lost, it was all about voter anger turned toward incumbents because of an economy that drew comparisons to the Great Depression.

If you listen to Republicans, Foster lost because he turned out not to be the politician some crossover voters thought he was in 2008.

The numbers from Kane County suggest neither one of those views may be entirely correct.

The special election in March 2008 saw voter turnouts of as low as 23 percent, even in the most heavily populated portions of Kane County such as the City of Aurora. Even the best turnout, in Geneva Township, no more than 33 percent of registered voters hit the polls to send Foster to victory over Republican Jim Oberweis.

The rematch came just eight months later. The voter turnout was much better, as high as 83 percent depending on which township you lived in, thanks to the presidential election. But even then, except for the Aurora area, Foster never secured even 60 percent of the vote in any Kane County township, even with an Obama bounce.

That may be even more surprising considering he was running against Oberweis, a guy he just beat.

While it's true Foster won two elections, it may be the Republican vote in a traditionally Republican district that was more telling.

Foster beat Oberweis, a man who'd never won any political office up to that point despite repeated attempts. Then Republicans, in what some viewed as another upset, sent Ethan Hastert packing. Hastert, again, had never won nor even ran for political office until the GOP primary in April 2010.

But come November, they finally had someone with a voting record in Randy Hultgren, to choose if they wished. And they did.

Indeed, in November, Foster couldn't muster even 50 percent of the vote in any Kane County township except the Aurora area and Elgin. Even in Aurora, Foster's support was even less than what he received in either the special election in 2008 or the Obama election in 2008.

In other words, Foster's 14th Congressional District victories may not have signaled the Kane County explosion of Democrats some thought.

Maybe the Republicans were just waiting for someone with whom they more closely identified.