Suburbs key to Kirk's Senate win

The suburbs were pivotal in Republican Mark Kirk's historic Senate victory Tuesday, giving him enough independent votes to blot out Democrats' lock on Chicago ballots and take over the seat once held by Barack Obama.

The defeat by a razor-thin margin of Obama's chosen successor, Alexi Giannoulias, is being credited in great part to Kirk's support in the suburbs, given that Illinois politics has split the state into three regions: Chicago, downstate and Chicago's suburbs, the latter being a battleground for undecided and independent voters this time around, experts say.

“It's not just that one candidate dominates each of these regions, it's by how big,” Sharon Alter, professor emerita of political science at Harper College said.

And every vote counted. With 97 percent of the vote counted, Kirk, a five-term congressman, had 48.4 percent to Giannoulias' 46 percent of statewide, unofficial vote totals.

Kirk, who bills himself as a moderate Republican, establishing a pro-science, pro-environment and abortion rights voting record over 10 years in Congress, needed support from various sectors of the right tea partiers, mainline and moderate Republicans alike.

Unofficial voting totals Tuesday suggested that he received some votes from those sectors.

In suburban Cook County, with 93 percent of precincts counted, Giannoulias led with 51 percent, or 331,672 votes. Kirk had 44 percent, or 282,887.

DuPage County, with 88 percent of precincts reporting, saw 37 percent of 248,016 votes cast for Giannoulias; and 58 percent for Kirk. With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Kane County saw 37 percent of 121,250 votes cast for Giannoulias; and 56 percent for Kirk. And in Lake County, 57 percent, or 114,000 votes were for Kirk. Another 39 percent, or 77,753 were for Giannouolias.

Giannoulias emerged a clear winner in Chicago with more than 70 percent of the vote; and Kirk dominated the downstate vote with an average of 75 percent across counties.

Across the state, Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones and Libertarian Mike Labno received 3 percent and 2 percent of the vote, respectively.

The late surge for Kirk prompted supporters at the Westin hotel in Wheeling to clap and chant “Kirk! Kirk! Kirk!” as each update on the TV showed the veteran 10th District Congressman cutting into an early lead by Giannoulias. They cheered Republican victories from Indiana, Wisconsin and North Dakota.

At Giannoulias headquarters at the Fairmont hotel in Chicago, it was a ping-pong ball of emotion, as the crowd reacted to an early lead only to see it fade.

Asked if he considered the close race a victory, campaign spokesman Dan McDonald said, “this is not how I measure success in political campaigns.”

John Frendreis, political science professor at Loyola University Chicago, said tea party members may not support all of Kirk's positions, but “in the end, if they're going to vote, they're going to vote against incumbents and against Democrats.”

Frendreis said he believes Democrats “fell into a trap that was to believe they couldn't win by drawing policy distinctions between themselves and the Republicans. I think they have been panicked by loud agitation, especially from the tea party movement.”

Instead, until the finally days of the election, Democratic candidates predominately conducted “negative campaigns, based upon social issues,” Frendreis said. “I think they should have said, Look, I will stand on votes that I took. Healthcare, deregulation and stimulus. Here is why I favored all of these things. You need to make a decision. Roll back the clock or move forward. I would have thought this would be a powerful message.”

It was only after the Oct. 27 debate on WTTW-11 that Giannoulias announced that his campaign was “going positive” from that point forward.

“I think in the end they made a mistake. I think this campaign has been distinguished by candidates staying negative for too long.”

And in recent weeks, Giannoulias and Democratic Party members paid for mailings targeted at downstate and conservative voters including those in McHenry and Lake counties touting the Oak Brook Libertarian Mike Labno as the “real conservative” in the race.

Giannoulias said last week that he's been upfront about his motivation behind the ads.

Still, Kirk's campaign dealt with challenges of its own, making the race closer than perhaps it should have been, Alter said.

The credibility issues that came into play in both campaigns the collapse of Giannoulias' family bank and its loans to members of organized crime, and revelations of Kirk's embellished military and teaching resume made the race a close one, Alter said.

“Had it not happened to both, the race would have been a runaway for Kirk,” Alter said.

Kirk last month revealed he is funding the “largest voter integrity program in 15 years,” part of a larger Republican effort placing poll watchers and election lawyers in areas that may have a history of voter fraud. Giannoulias' campaign, in turn, launched a poll watching effort of its own, with 375 volunteers placed at polls around the state.

The race will have a more immediate impact on Washington than other Senate races across the country, thanks to a federal judge's ruling for two separate elections for the seat. Kirk will replace appointed Sen. Roland Burris on Nov. 29, rather than wait until January.