As first half comes to close, Cubs drive into a dead end

Posted July 11, 2010 11:00 pm

By Bruce Miles

Yogi Berra may have imparted the best advice ever to the road-weary traveler: When you get to a fork in the road, take it.

The Cubs are either at the proverbial fork in the road, or they're ready to have a fork stuck in them. In other words, things could go either way for the North Siders.

The unofficial first half of the season has turned out to be nothing more than a dead end for the Cubs, as they languish with a record of 39-50, good for fourth place in the National League Central.

For the Cubs to get back into the race, they'll have to dodge a lot of potholes they've created and hope they've got enough gas and spare parts for what appears to be a long ride ahead.

Looking back at how the Cubs got to this point may be instructive in figuring a way out of it, so let's see how they got here:

No right turn: The Cubs' right-handed hitters, two of whom anchor the right side of the infield, let them down in a big way.

First baseman Derrek Lee drove over a cliff in the first half with a hitting line of .233/.329/.366, down from his full-season line of .306/.393/.579 last year. Lee has called his bad back a "nonissue," but one wonders how much it's bothering him since his slow starts in the past have never lasted a half-season.

Second baseman Ryan Theriot hasn't come close to matching his career year of 2008, when he sported an on-base percentage of .387. These days, Theriot struggles to keep his OBP much above .300, and he has virtually no extra-basehit ability.

The Cubs' other slumping right-handed hitter, Aramis Ramirez, has played through pain near his left thumb for much of the season. He only now seems to be coming out of it, as he was 12-for-28 with 4 homers on the recent road trip.

Manager Lou Piniella said he was worried about low batting averages at the end of spring training, but the lack of production from these key hitters seems the biggest surprise.

"No, I thought consistently we'd swing the bats better," Piniella said over the weekend in Los Angeles. "We're starting to show some signs now that we're hitting the ball a lot better. But I thought coming out of spring training that we'd score runs a little more consistently.

"Outside of that, we had a young bullpen. That's basically it. This team here is basically built for power and to score runs."

False starts: How many times did the Cubs win a series or a ballgame and think they were on their way only to backslide? Seems at least once every couple of weeks.

The last time the Cubs were at .500 was May 4, when they were at 13-13 opening what seemed to be a series full of opportunity at Pittsburgh.

"We've been there two or three different times, and we've fallen back," Piniella said at the time. "But hopefully, with the way we've been playing, the way we've been swinging the bats, hopefully, this is a time where we can have a good road trip and get above .500 and go forward."

The Cubs had just come off a series win over Arizona, but alas, they lost all three to the lowly Pirates and haven't sniffed .500 since.

Three days later, they called up shortstop phenom Starlin Castro from the minor leagues, and he seemed to spark them with a record-setting 6-RBI performance at Cincinnati. That lasted all of one day, as the Cubs lost the next two games of the series.

The Cubs talked bravely of getting over the hump after taking two of three from Oakland in mid-June, but they hit another disastrous slide.

Even so, they had a chance to gain ground against the surprising Reds over Fourth of July weekend at Wrigley, but they lost three of four.

Too young to drive: Quick, can you name the Cubs' bullpen members on Opening Day other than veterans Carlos Marmol, John Grabow and Sean Marshall?

The answer would be James Russell, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad and Jeff Samardzija.

For all his experience, Grabow was no great shakes, and the kids did the best they could, but they weren't ready for pressure-packed roles.

Chalk it up to an area left overexposed by general manager Jim Hendry, who last year didn't have the requisite infield depth after Ramirez dislocated his shoulder in May.

Samardzija was sent to the minor leagues on April 24 and hasn't been back. Russell has pitched creditably, as has Berg at times, but both logged time in the minors this year.

For some reason, the Cubs handed Caridad a job early in spring training. He was ineffective, wound up hurt and hasn't been heard from since going on the disabled list for a third time on May 19.

Cubs manager Lou Piniella, left, and general manager Jim Hendry expected their club to contend in the NL Central. Instead, the Cubs are in fourth place with a record of 39-50. Associated Press file

More stop than go for the Cubs

Bruce Miles, with his foot on the Cubs' accelerator, offers this assessment of the clubs' key players at the All-Star Game break:

Green lights

SS Starlin Castro

A homer, triple and 6 RBI in his big-league debut were electrifying. The Cubs are sticking with Castro in hot times and cold.

RHP Carlos Marmol

The ride is exciting, but Marmol is steady enough to have collected 16 saves and 78 strikeouts in 412/3 innings for a strikeout-per-9-innings ratio of 16.85.

LHP Sean Marshall

The good-soldier lefty has established himself as one of the top setup men in the game. His WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched) is a tidy 1.06, and his ERA is 2.03.

Red lights

1B Derrek Lee

It's hard to believe Lee's numbers have fallen so far so fast. An impending free agent, his Cubs career looks to be ending in a bad way.

3B Aramis Ramirez

It's been so bad that he was asked if he was happy to be above .200 over the weekend. A thumb injury could hamper him the rest of the way, but he has been hot of late.

2B Ryan Theriot

A leadoff man with a .317 OBP won't cut it. His OBP was .387 just two years ago, and he still makes too many baserunning errors.

RHP Carlos Zambrano

Did his dugout meltdown pave the way out of town? For now, the Cubs don't know when he will return to the team.

RF Kosuke Fukudome

$48 million man is now a part-time player.

Telling number

The Cubs have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 45 games. Their record in those games is 26-19, which reflects back on a poor offense. By contrast, the Atlanta Braves are 40-13 in games in which they've allowed 3 or fewer runs.

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