Go Figure: Fearless Cubs & White Sox Forecasts
Extrapolating from one contest to a full 162-game slate is risky business, so there will be no prognostications here based on Opening Day action.
Projecting White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton to slug 162 home runs, or the Cubs' pitching staff to issue nearly 1,800 walks, or the Cubs - whose three runs against Pittsburgh all came via sacrifice flies - to shatter (by more than sixfold) the Major League mark for that offbeat stat?
You won't find something so foolish to be derived from April Fools' Day action. However, here are forecasts that I hope prove to be more fearless than feckless:
The White Sox will take the Central Division with 91 wins - and make significant playoff progress.
Losing Eloy Jimenez for most of the season to injury will be painful, but he will return to help prevent a repeat of last year's first-round flameout against Oakland.
Shortstop Tim Anderson will have another stellar season, but will finish outside the Top 10 in batting average. The past two years, he and the Yankees' DJ LeMahieu have flip-flopped for the highest averages, Anderson posting a league-high .335 in 2019 and LeMahieu .364 last season.
The Sox will advance to the American League Championship Series but lose to the Yankees in 6 games.
Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito's strong Opening Day start (8 strikeouts, 2 hits and 2 runs in 5⅓ innings) is a sign of more success to come. He will follow up 6th- and 7th-place Cy Young finishes the past two years with a Top 5 showing.
Joining him in the upper echelon will be beard-mate Dallas Keuchel, whose 5th place in 2020 Cy Young tabulations came five years after he secured the award as an Astro.
Trivia timeout
Cubs' outfielder Joc Pederson drove in his first run as a Cub with a sacrifice fly with the bases loaded in the first inning Opening Day. His father, Stu, drove in one run in his MLB career, a sacrifice fly late in the 1985 season.
Can you name the Dodger, a future White Sox infielder, who came home on the play?
The Cubs will be below .500 through May, costing them a postseason slot.
With 86 wins, the Cubs will climb 10 games above .500, but will fall short of wild-card status by three games.
In 2017, on the heels of a World Series title, the Cubs were 25-27 at the end of May. While that squad finished with 92 victories and eventually made it to the NLCS, the 2021 edition is not nearly as robust.
There are too many questions littered throughout the pitching staff, with 11 Opening Day walks an exclamation point on that uncertainty.
Primed to win ... or past it?
Can 35-year-old Jake Arrieta come close to the dominance he displayed for the first three seasons of his first Chicago stint, when his record was 50-19? More likely, we will see the guy who has gone 60-60 over the balance of his career.
Also, consider the five Cubs who started Opening Day four years ago and this year: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras and Javy Baez. Of that group, how many are poised to have a better season than their 2017 campaigns?
That's largely a rhetorical question, though "two" may be a generous over/under.
ANSWER: Steve Sax.