Go Figure: Three 'too early to forecast' intrepid predictions for 2020

By Matt Baron

Daily Herald sports columnist

One week into the Major League Baseball season, subplots have emerged in full force. Of the utmost significance: whether the Miami Marlins will manage to resume action without a recurrence of the widespread coronavirus outbreak that interrupted their campaign after only three games.

Looking to lighter statistical subplots, here are my "Way Too Early to Forecast, But I Will Make Intrepid Predictions, Anyhow" prognostications:

• Prediction #1: Anthony Rizzo will surpass Ron Hunt's 1971 record-setting pace for getting hit by a pitch.

Through six games, the Cubs first baseman got hit five times, or more than double the "ouch-put" of anyone else in the majors. This has been the highest cluster of HBPs in Rizzo's already-HBP-happy career and, heading into Friday's game, put him on (very early) track to tie Hunt's record in this truncated 60-game season.

Also, consider these other contusion concentrations in Rizzo's career: four times in an early-2015 three-game span (Games 2 through 4) and four times in the first seven games of 2018. Notice a pattern? He appears to take advantage of pitchers' early-season lack of command.

But his ridiculous rate of 2020 HBPs has to slow down, especially when each incident could sideline Rizzo. Faster than you can say "regression to the mean," he will settle into a less injurious rhythm at the plate as pitchers become more precise in locating the ball.

My crystal ball says Rizzo gets bopped 10 more times, or 15 times overall. That is one more time than Hunt experienced through the first 60 games of the Montreal Expos' 1971 season. Of course, Hunt really "heated up" thereafter, racking up 29 HBPs over the last half of that campaign.

Q1: When Hunt got hit 50 times in 1971, the National Leaguer who came in second in that category, with only nine, was an Expo teammate. Who was it?

(Ron Fairly, Rusty Staub, Coco Laboy)

• Prediction #2: Sonny Gray's mark for most consecutive starts without surrendering more than six base hits will remain intact heading into 2021.

This somewhat impressive and exceedingly peculiar distinction ("openers" who pitch only an inning or two do not qualify) belongs to the Cincinnati Reds hurler. Gray grew the streak to 35 games on Wednesday when he gave up only one hit to the Cubs in 6 2/3 innings.

Why is this a solid bet to continue over Gray's remaining starts? It's a blend of Gray's skill and the game's hyper-hook tendencies this year.

With every contest the equivalent of 2.7 games (in a 162-game slate), managers are quicker to take out starting pitchers who struggle. And if Gray runs into trouble, the attention dedicated to this mark - surely one of the most random records in baseball annals - will put added pressure on Reds skipper David Bell to call upon a reliever.

Q2: Whose record of 31 consecutive starts without giving up more than six hits did Gray break?

(Roger Clemens, Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan)

• Prediction #3: During the 60-game season, at least five players will slug 20 home runs, and at least one will slam 25.

Hitting 20 homers (once every three games) is a 54-home run pace for a typical season. And 25 homers projects to 65 home runs over a normal season.

So, although only five players have enjoyed 50-home run seasons over the past dozen years, this season's shorter "sprint" bodes well for players to attain these levels.

In fact, three who have eclipsed the 50-homer mark are great candidates to get 20 in '20: New York Yankee teammates Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and New York Met Pete Alonso. Among the others to look out for: Rizzo, Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers and Nelson Cruz of the Twins.

Q3: In addition to Judge, Stanton and Alonso, two of the following players have also smashed 50 home runs in a season since 2008. Which one did not?

(Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, Khris Davis)

Answers

1. Rusty Staub; 2. Nolan Ryan; 3. Khris Davis

• Matt Baron is an Oak Park-based freelance writer. He supplements his baseball brainpower with Retrosheet.org for research.