PECOTA says Cubs, White Sox finish season with winning records

  • Sloan Park in Mesa, Az.

      Sloan Park in Mesa, Az. Scot Gregor | Staff Photographer

Updated 2/11/2020 6:45 PM

MESA, Ariz. -- Spring training is gearing up, and you know what that means.

It's PECOTA projection time, and the numbers came out on Tuesday as the Cubs and White Sox both started trickling into camp.


It is very early in the game, but the Cubs and Sox have the look of winners.

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is an annual Baseball Prospectus project that predicts team records for the upcoming season.

Let's go to the spreadsheet.

The Cubs come in at 85-78, good for second place in the NL Central behind the Reds (86-76), who beefed up their roster in the offseason. The Cubs are given a 51.5% chance of making the playoffs.

The White Sox come in at 83-80, which would be their first winning season since 2012. PECOTA has them finishing third in the AL Central with an 18.1% chance of making the postseason.

The Twins are projected to finish first in the division at 93-69 (89.2% chance to make playoffs) followed by the Indians at 86-76 (41.4%).

Curiously, PECOTA has the Cubs and Sox each playing 163 games this season, one more than is on the schedule.


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